Posted on 11/07/2017 6:19:39 PM PST by bryan999
I generally like your thoughts, but this is nonsense. Gillispie wasn’t a full-throated Trumper, but since there is no real Trump “agenda,” I don’t know what being a full-throated Trumper is.
We are in a position where Trump can endorse a candidate (Strange) and see that candidate lose and it’s a victory for Trump because the guy he lost to is Trumpier than the guy Trump endorsed.
Trumpism is not about policies, because aside from the wall, there are no policy positions. It’s about attitude. And no one can speak and act the way Trump speaks and acts, because the public seems to only accept that type of performance in Trump himself.
Also, the Dems wiping out the Repubs in the House of Delegates had nothing to do with Trump. A transgendered person beat the man who introduced Virginia’s bathroom bill. The issue there was not Trump.
What was Trump supposed to do?
Also, keep in mind that I was responding to a poster who suggested that "Trump wasn't being helpful" in the aftermath of Gillespie's loss.
All politics aside, I think it would be wise for a state political party to adopt a strategy of throwing a candidate into the garbage dumpster after he or she loses a statewide election. Ed Gillespie didn't become any more electable since 2014 when he lost his U.S. Senate race.
A governor who runs and hides from Trump. It’s what you have to do in Maryland if you’re a Republican and want to stand a chance of winning your election. Unless you’re Dr. Andy Harris representing a righteous conservative district on the Eastern Shore and a little bit of the west.
Vogel embraced Trump. She did better than Gillespie, but the bottom line is she lost and it wasn’t very close.
Dem strategists have been perfecting that technique for decades.
They use it to peel votes away from republicans, especially conservatives.
The sheep fall for it.
It has worked so well n CA that everyone from dog catcher to gov is illegal loving rats.
Meanwhile, the ca repub party is still looking for that perfect candidate that will suddenly swing voters back to their senses.
Steep Ca voters (and now VA voters)into dem crap long enough, and they will come to their senses and vote for conservatives, eh?
Elections are driven by turnout. Per Captain Obvious, to win an election, a candidate needs to obtain a majority of the votes counted.
Lackluster candidates do not help.
In 2016, turnout fell by 2.3% from 2012 to 2016 in the states that Hillary Clinton won, and was unchanged in states that Donald Trump one. But in the 14 swing states, turnout was 65.3% compared to 56.3% for the other 36 states and DC. The higher turnout in the swing states is what gave Donald Trump his majority in the Electoral College.
The Commonwealth of Virginia is something of a political anomaly with its one-term limit for governor and its off-year election.
The one-term limit for the governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia is a legacy of the resentment of British royal authority at the time of the American Revolution. From 1776 until 1830, the General Assembly selected the governor for a one-year term with a limit of three consecutive terms. After 1830 the term was changed to three years with no ability for re-election. The Commonwealth’s 1851 constitution allowed for popular election of the governor for the first time, with a four-year term and prohibited immediate re-election. An individual may run for governor for non-consecutive terms.
Virginia’s off-year elections for statewide offices is an artifact of the ratification of their post-civil war constitution in the summer of 1869. However, keeping the elections off-year is a legacy of the Commonwealth’s Democrat politicians and political machines, particularly that of Harry F. Byrd.
Between November of 2016 and November of 2017, registered voters in Virginia dropped 2.1% from 5,605,711 to 5,489,530. The number of votes cast dropped by 32.5% from 3,386,362 to 2,508,325. As a percentage of votes counted, Ed Gillespie underperformed Donald Trump by 1%, even as the percentage of third-party votes dropped from 3% to 1% and the turnout dropped from 21.5%, which arguably should have meant a better informed. more motivated electorate.
Clearly Ed Gillespie is not someone that people were excited to vote for. He had previously demonstrated his lack of voter appeal in his unsuccessful campaign for the U.S. Senate.
Many others have already posted why Virginia is turning Democrat. Reducing Federal government spending, draining the swamp, and stopping illegal immigration, are all necessary to reverse that trend.
But even if all that is accomplished, the Republicans cannot afford to run insipid candidates whose only apparent qualification is that they paid their dues to the establishment.
>> Gillespie received a larger percentage of the Virginia vote than Trump did <<
Don’t bother us with your facts and logic. Neither is needed on this thread.
>> If Trump can’t win, his mini me won’t win either <<
It’s interesting to me that a few years ago when he was running for the U. S. Senate, Gillespie won Loudon County. But this go-round he lost Loudon by 20 points.
Therefore, if he had run again as a squishy GOPe moderate rather than as a mini-Trump, maybe he might have done better.
>> Less than 10% of the federal workforce are in the DC area <<
Maybe so. But that ten percent represents a WHOLE LOTTA people.
Moreover, you can add to them their family members, plus all of the contractors who live off of Federal largesse, not to mention the guy at the corner gas station who would go out of business without his federally-employed customers.
I always like it when people tell me I’m right. :-)
And I did see your note on Trump not being helpful. The problem with Trump is that he wants every election to be a referendum on him. And, I’m not sure that’s going to work out so well in 2018 against a Democratic base that wants war and a Republican base that’s going to be wondering what happened to repealing Obamacare.
Trump being an issue is fine in 2020. But are his most ardent supporters going to go to the polls for ANY representative.
The other concern I have here is that Trump is 72 years old and has an approval rating that doesn’t exactly scream second term.
If the GOP becomes the party of Trump, what happens after Trump leaves the scene? A populist, nationalist, in your face political party will quickly become a freak show - which is exactly what happened with the Reform Party once Perot lost interest in running for president.
No one likes the current GOP elite, but Reince and Company have won a gazillion elections over the last 8 years. Replacing that with Bannon and Alex Jones doesn’t strike me as a formula for either victory or meaningful legislation.
The numbers is Loudon and PWC last night were truly terrifying if you are mapping a future for the GOP in Virginia.
Fairfax and Arlington are the Dem strongholds in Virginia, and they have the population to tip statewide contests. Republicans really don’t win state-wide office any longer in VA, and those two counties are the reason. It’s the same relationship between New York City and New York State.
However, Loudon and PWC have traditionally been purple. Those counties are the reason you can still elect Republican representatives and have a Republican House of Delegates.
If those two become the same as Fairfax and Arlington, the GOP will be the party of former coal miners in Virginia.
Gillispie received a higher percentage of the vote than Trump did in the general.
Taking the Trump love to 11 might have ended up costing the Repubs the delegate seats they are barely hanging onto.
You’re sounding like Hilkary. Trump wasn’t running in just one state. If Trump was running just in VA, he would gave won it. Gillespie is a two time loser.
Ok. Everything is fine. America is great again.
Yes likely so......unless voters get out there ‘again’ as they did for Trump the Demorat/Republican elites are determined to ‘save’ their revenue flows and power...
Local elections matter....
Gillespie Rhino would have had a difficult time winning in VA. .....the Demorats target their blue areas and get the vote out...the Republican voters are not ‘fired up’ to win in VA....it’s that simple.
Great points. I love Trump. I love Trump because he loves America.
You are right, VA is a blue state now. Therefore the only chance Gillespie had was to energize Trump voters in state. That may not guarantee a win, but would have enhanced his chance for a win. Without that, he had no chance. Gillespie kept Trump atarm’s length and that sealed his fate.
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