If reports are true, and China sticks to it’s (reported) guns, NK has a year left of solvency. It either goes out like the Soviet Union with a whimper or it goes for the Hail Mary (out with a bang).
The end of NK is either, unification with South Korea or China. But who wants them? By them, I mean the people with the full understanding that there is no government with any control. China would want NK for the buffer and the military strategic advantage. NK would be a burden for South Korea (at least initially).
RE: NK would be a burden for South Korea (at least initially).
Is it possible to follow the East-West German model post unification?
they want nk minerals.
What I heard from some South Koreans when I visited last year is that they would accept unification, but are not clamoring for it. They saw the problems that Germany has had following its reunification, and think that their reunification problems will be even bigger, since the two parts of Korea have been separated for much longer.
I have such empathy and respect for the South Koreans. They live with a kook just a few miles away. North Korea has never stopped trying to attack South Korea by one means or another.
I’ve thought for awhile that China’s ultimate goal in the Western Pacific is the reunification of Taiwan with the PRC mainland. I think they will gladly trade away North Korea to rejoin the South if they are guaranteed Taiwan.
I don’t think China will ever try to take Taiwan through aggression. They want a Taiwan that would be very happy—eager, even—to rejoin the mainland. The key will be to convince young Taiwanese that the mainland will serve their interests better than we have.