New poll has Doug Jones neck and neck with Roy Moore in AL Senate race

American Thinker ^ | 10/18/2017 | Rick Moran

[Kazan]

The Fox News poll was every bit as off as most of the rest of them last election cycle.

Sampling registered instead of likely voters is lazy and makes a poll more inaccurate.

[rrrod]

Fake news

[Truth29]

"If the Democrats think they have a shot at winning this race, they’ll sink a bunch of money into it."

I wonder how much disguised money Mitch McConnell will send in on the Democrat side?

[Grampa Dave]

Remember all the phony/fake polls you posted last year showing that Trump would lose the election?

Well nothing has changed re worthless polls!

Fraud': Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans

Washington Examiner ^ | 09/22/2017 | Paul Bedard Posted on 9/23/2017, 4:30:52 PM by ForYourChildren

Most of the top political polls that got the 2016 presidential race dead wrong are continuing to use a flawed methodology in rating President Trump's approval ratings that favors Democrats, women and younger voters, according to a new analysis.

The report shows that the mainstream polls oversample an average of 29 percent more Democrats than Republicans and the results skew anti-Trump. The result is that it robs Trump of about 8 points in his approval ratings, from 46 percent to 38 percent, it said.

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3588403/posts

[Blue Highway]

Is Mitch McConnell campaigning for Roy Moore? Didn’t think so.

[Zenjitsuman]

With Strange, Brooks both supporting Moore, and nobody going to be spending 30 million on negative ads, I say the Judge will do just fine. After all the state is a red state.

[Sir Napsalot]

First, so-called conservative Rick Moran is a noted NeverTrumper, which means he would rather any Mitch McConnell clone win than a real conservative to stir up the pot at the DC Swamp.

Remember, To the NeverTrumpers, a president Hillary would be better for conservatives and Conservatism.

Second, did he further diagnosed the aberration with this Fox Poll, like other pundits already did?

[so_real]

"neck and neck" ... yeah, right ... in the real world does that mean Moore is 6 points or 8 points ahead?

[Political Junkie Too]

This poll is R-47% D-37% I-16%.

The Alabama Presidential result was Trump-62% Clinton-32%.

This poll is R+10%, but I wonder if they should have had more R's and less I's in Alabama.

-PJ

[txnativegop]

the former is verbal and the latter is physical. LOL

[jimmygrace]

I’m hoping this poll causes Hollywood to send boatloads of cash to Alabama.

[Grampa Dave]

KASSAM: Fox Alabama Poll Sees Murdoch’s Network Enter ‘Very Fake News’ Territory

Breitbart ^ | October 17, 2017 | Kassam
Posted on 10/18/2017, 10:41:29 AM by COUNTrecount

Fox News thinks its pollster has revealed a dead heat between Judge Roy Moore and his Democrat opponent Doug Jones in Alabama.

The network suggests, after randomly polling just 801 people, that the firms Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company have revealed a problem for Republicans in the traditionally red state.

But here’s the real problem, as I’ve spelled out before…

These voodoo pollsters are outright partisans, and both of these firms use methodologies that trend towards whatever benefits the establishment. Here’s their data this time, which reveals not only the strange questions asked per group, but also the small sample size, the overeliance (and need for correction) on cell vs. landline users (i.e. traditionally younger vs. traditionally older voters).

Whether this is intentional or just a consequence of their bubble is up for some debate, but here’s how it works:

ANDERSON ROBBINS RESEARCH

This firm is headed by Christopher Anderson, a Democrat strategist who worked for John Kerry. Their job — their financial interest — lays with playing up Democrat hopes. Pollsters are often also consultants, and wouldn’t make money on the run up to the race if their candidate fears they have nothing to play for. The candidates can’t fundraise, the pollsters and their other consultant buddies can’t make money. See?

Indeed even when the “Republican” Shaw & Company collaborates with Anderson Robbins, their methodology has a statistical history of pulling left and overplaying Democrat chances.

They’ve been doing this with their regular Presidential approval rating polls too, as laid out here, where the author is correct in stating:

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com .

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3596183/posts

[robroys woman]

Good one!

[Political Junkie Too]

See my post #29. This poll is R+10%, but the election was R+28%.

I had an error in my post #29. It should have bee:

The Alabama Presidential result was Trump-62% Clinton-34%.

-PJ

[txnativegop]

Thanks! :D

[chris37]

Literally the same, literally! (with a British accent)

[Grampa Dave]

DATA: Blue States Getting Redder and Red States Getting Redder
Big League Politics ^ | 10/18/2017 | Larry Schweikart
Posted on 10/18/2017, 11:36:23 AM by bitt

October’s voter registration changes measured against last November continue to show Republican strength, almost across the board. Certainly in the “battleground” states, the Democrats are looking at a very bleak picture. A reminder that these are net changes—some states have seen voter registration increases, some decreases as rolls are purged—but the key is the net gain or loss of one party against the other.

Also, keep in mind Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas and Georgia, to name a few, do not register by party so it is impossible to track the changes in those states. However, with that in mind . . . .

*AZ Rs net +11,160 Both parties gained, and the Republican edge was down slightly from last look, but still holding very strong. So much for Arizona “going purple.” If this rate of changes holds, Arizona Republicans could have a net gain of an additional 25,000 voters by election time in 2018....

(Excerpt) Read more at bigleaguepolitics.com ...

[Lisbon1940]

Same thing with Childers.

[Boogieman]

Every time I see a story about this guy, it reminds me of the mentally impaired "Dougie Jones" character on the recent season of "Twin Peaks":

[cgbg]

The Alabama Presidential result was Trump-62% Clinton-34%

Now, for the apples to apples comparison the Trump v Clinton October 2016 Alabama polls showed T 57.3 C 37.5.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-alabama-president-trump-vs-clinton

So 3% less actually voted for Clinton while 5% more voted for Trump--an 8% error rate--well outside the margin for error.

Conclusion: add eight points to the Moore margin of the consensus polls and you will have a reasonable indicator of how the race was going.

Bragging time: I posted here many times explaining why the 2016 polls were wrong and why Trump was winning. (end of bragging)