It is too early to tell if your final tax bill goes up. First, state and local taxes are currently limited by the alternative minimum tax and many folks are not benefiting from the that tax deduction. Second, the proposals are supposed to include an increase in the standard deduction and a decrease in tax rates. These changes may offset the benefit of those tax deductions.
In addition, I have followed tax law changes and the actual outcome is sometimes very different that the ultimate law.
I’ve run our Fed and State (CA) taxes using the proposed new standard deduction and loss of State and Local tax deductibility. It is pretty clear our bracket won’t change. After netting the three changes (standard exemption + state tax deductibility + property tax deductibility) we are hosed. We haven’t triggered AMT before, so we’ve continued full deductibility of those taxes.
Yes, our only hope is that the final law is different from what is being bandied about. We’ll see how much political power the big, liberal, high-tax states have in this tax reform. The changes seem designed to screw them which, unfortunately, screws the conservatives still left in those states.
I’d love to see simplified taxes — but maybe after I’m gone! Call me selfish, but I didn’t budget another $4,000 to $5,000 per year in retirement for this.