“Until someone can produce hard evidence that Paddock made the money some other way, the existing evidence is that he made it as he reported, improbability notwithstanding.”
I don’t think you get it. That’s the point of money laundering. People who start spending millions on real estate, cars, boats, etc. show up on the radar with the IRS. This needs to match roughly what you have been telling the IRS you earn. If you report $50k a year, but spend like you’e making millions, you’ll go down like Al Capone.
So people launder their ill-got gains by pretending they got it elsewhere. Preferably in an all-cash business. Gambling is one easy way.
I think it is possible but improbable that he made fortunes gambling. And I also think that casinos watch their customers so well that they can probably tell if someone is laundering money. And this begs the question of their role in that dirty business.
Casinos certainly know if you consistently win. It won’t matter to them if you are just lucky or are a card counter, if you win more than they think that you should they will ban you.
That’s one more reason not to believe the idea that Paddock got rich by gambling.
Like you, I think gambling is how he was laundering money. That, and his real estate investing. Both involve large sums of money that may not attract attention if you report large taxable gains.
His dad was a career criminal. Stephen just put into practice a few tricks he learned about how to stay invisible to the authorities.