Posted on 10/04/2017 6:34:14 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Vietnam and Japan would be among hardest hit by a Korean conflict
Moody's and the World Bank warn of serious economic consequences to Asia
MASAYUKI YUDA and TOMOMI KIKUCHI, Nikkei staff writers
TOKYO -- If recent escalations in tensions ultimately culminate in a military conflict on the Korean peninsula, the U.S. and North Korea would not be the only countries to suffer -- at least in terms of credit-worthiness, the ratings company Moody's warns. Vietnam and Japan would be also be in the firing line.
More broadly, the simmering tensions could jeopardize otherwise upbeat prospects for growth across the region, the World Bank warned in its semiannual East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released Wednesday.
In the view of Moody's senior credit officer Martin Petch: "A protracted conflict would affect the credit profiles of sovereigns worldwide via a number of channels."
One obvious victim would be South Korea, and by extension, Vietnam. Many South Korean companies, such as Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics, have incorporated Vietnam into their supply chains, building factories in the country to take advantage of cheaper labor.
"Vietnam is the most vulnerable to any disruption to the global supply chain caused by a cessation or weakening of production in South Korea," Petch said.
Around 20% of Vietnam's intermediate goods imports come from South Korea. Vietnam's goods exports to South Korea account for more than 5% of the country's gross domestic product.
(Excerpt) Read more at asia.nikkei.com ...
P!
Women and minorities will not be happy about this.
Would they be “harder hit” by initiation of hostilities by Norkea or by a sudden massive strike against Norkea’s nuclear and DMZ artillery? it seems that is the set of likely alternatives.
Trump is visiting Korea soon. A good time for “Rocket-Man” to do something crazy.
A protracted conflict between countries with nuclear weapons would be new and very unusual, particularly when one power has a limited means to sustain the economics needed for war.
Don’t kid yourself.
Norks go down, ChiComs go down.
Explain how *that* would happen....
Emperor has no clothes.
Like with Tienanmen Square?
The idea being that a good emperor expands the realm. Losing NK is definitely not expanding the realm. Xi might be a goner, an ex-chairman.
Adjustments will be made, successfully, and what Vietnam or Japan losses in trade with South Korea and vice-a-versa will be made up by the massive buying and selling of other stuff to prosecute the war with North Korea. In the end all three will be stronger.
OK...if NK collapses for whatever reason I suppose it could cost the Chinese leader at that time his job.But the earlier poster seemed to be suggesting that China itself would collapse if NK did.
As was seen in Tienanmen Square I suspect that the Chinese Communist Party has a strong enough desire to survive to motivate it to persevere after a NK collapse.
Actually, yes.
They needed a massacre and huge clampdown to retain power.
And stupid Bush administration helped them.
“But the earlier poster seemed to be suggesting that China itself would collapse if NK did.”
I think this refers to je and you are wrong.
I said ChiComs would go down, not that China would collapse.
Big, huge difference.
China does not need one party communist rule. Everyone knows that.
If Norks go down, it makes it clear and obvious there is no reason for the ChiComs to singlehandedly rule China.
“Free” trade sucks. I hope any war in east Asia ends all of it. At least from China.
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