Some notes from me late at night.
No more “Grand Coalition.” German politics as we have seen them may well have been shattered.
“Jamaica Coalition” exists currently as a theoretical exercise. IMO, the Union, SPD, the Greens, & FDP only share one thing: keep die Linke and AfD away from any real power.
So SPD becomes the official opposition. I suspect in part to make sure AfD doesn’t become the official opposition. But this leaves Merkel with some unpleasantness because the Free Democrats did not win enough seats to recast the typical coalition German politics has seen in the past.
Merkel has ruled out any coalition with AfD. That leaves forming the “Jamaica Coalition” as her only option. By no stretch of the imagination should one regard this as a given. She may get the coalition to form a majority government — but how long will it last?
That’s the 64,000 Euro question.
Consider that in Germany the major parties already are leaning green with their policies. Showing the Greens they can govern with the Center Right and accomplish reasonable goals is a good thing in both the short and long term.