Posted on 09/15/2017 9:32:06 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
Support for New Zealand’s opposition Labour Party was neck-and-neck with the National Party, a poll showed, threatening the center-right government’s decade-long grip on power. Backing for Labour had surged 7 points to 39.5 percent, virtually even with National on 40 percent, a Roy Morgan Poll showed on Friday.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
This poll shows National at 40, Labor 39.5, Greens 9, NZ First 6 and Maori 2. Giving the margin of error, all that can be inferred is that the election is very close.
Must have imported a bunch of Mexican illegals.
How accurate are the polls in NZ? What party is the most conservative?
National is a center-right party. It is kind of wishy-washy. It’s done a pretty good job, overall, keeping things together the last few years. Especially considering they have had a very narrow majority.
Labour has lurched to the left in this election. It used to be a Bill Clinton-Tony Blair kind of party, and now is hard-core progressive socialist, and atheist to boot. They excite impressionable youth who think the laws of nature and the laws of economics can be amended by the government.
The Greens are complete environmental wackos.
New Zealand First is an interesting party. They’re more populist and less free-market. I think this means they’re like Trump, most freepers, Marine Le Pen, Siv Jensen of Norway, and a lot of other populist-conservative types around the world.
I think a National-New Zealand First coalition could work out fine. But, who knows how this will turn it. Things look very close and things also look fluid.
In 2014, New Zealand First outperformed the final batch of polls, at the expense of Labor and Greens.
In 2011, New Zealand First outperformed the final batch of polls, at the expense of National.
So, I wouldn’t be surprised if New Zealand First again outperforms the polls. But, I don’t know from whom they will steal (or steal back) votes. If I had to guess, it would be that New Zealand First will do better that the expense of Labour.
On a global basis these past few years, the polls have been wrong (”outside the margin of error”) about half the time, and when they have been wrong, they have under-predicted the vote of parties to the right.
Wonder how conservative “National” is by US standards.
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