Posted on 09/09/2017 2:08:31 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The entire Florida Peninsula and points north are poised to experience Hurricane Irma after the storm hugged Cuba's northern coastline. Thousands of Floridians who evacuated the Atlantic cost to Gulf Coast areas found their safe shelter under direct threat from Hurricane Irma as the forecast shifted W Friday night and Saturday. Hurricane Irma's prolonged interaction with Cuba diminished its strength to Category 3.
Irma is forecast to increase in strength as it crosses the FL Straits. The Florida Keys experienced strong outer bands while Irma grazed the N Cuba coastline.
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Hurricane Irma Live Thread I
Hurricane Irma Live Thread II
You DON’T want it winding up bashing against your house.
I’d be more concerned about the damage it could do to the neighbors than the idiots losing all their furniture.
Collateral damage from the storm.
Too bad. They can go to the trouble of fishing it out of their pool for the cost of leaving the neighbors to deal with it.
I can have a callous streak a mile wide when it comes to inconsiderate people.
Last five minutes — new update
Sun Sep 10 09:45:03 EDT 2017
TCDAT1
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb
flight-level winds of 128 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along with
surface wind estimates of 110-115 kt from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave Radiometer. In addition, the aircraft data shows that the
central pressure has fallen to 928 mb. Based on these data, the
initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt, again making Irma a
Category 4 hurricane.
Irma has made its long-awaited turn, with the initial motion now
325/7. For the next 36-48 h, the cyclone will be steered generally
north-northwestward with an increase in forward speed between a low-
to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid-
to upper-level low over the Gulf Coast states and the northern Gulf
of Mexico. After that, the system should turn northwestward and
then move somewhat erratically near the end of its life as it merges
with the low. The tightly-clustered track guidance has changed
little since the last advisory, and the new NHC forecast is very
close to the previous one. The eye should move across the Lower
Florida Keys in the next few hours. After that, the hurricane’s
track almost parallel to the west coast of Florida makes it very
difficult to pinpoint exactly where Irma will cross the Florida Gulf
coast.
Given current trends, some additional strengthening could occur
during the next several hours. However, vertical wind shear is
increasing over Irma, and the shear is expected to become strong
within 24 h. This, combined with land interaction, should cause at
least a steady weakening from 12-36 h. The new intensity forecast
is slightly lower than that of the previous advisory at those
times, but it still calls for Irma to be a major hurricane at its
closest approach to the Tampa Bay area. A faster weakening is
likely after Irma moves across the Florida Panhandle and starts to
merge with the aforementioned upper-level low, and the new forecast
follows the trend of the previous one in calling for the system to
decay to a remnant low by 72 h and to dissipate completely by 120 h.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to
the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane today, and these conditions will spread into central
and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday. Preparations in the
Florida Keys and southwest Florida should be complete since
hurricane-force winds are spreading into that area.
2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge
flooding along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida
Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of
catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation.
3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida
regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma
are also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia
and portions of South Carolina and Alabama.
4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated amounts of
25 inches are expected over the Florida Keys through Sunday evening.
Through Monday, Irma is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 8 to
15 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches across the Florida
peninsula and southeast Georgia, while across the rest of Georgia,
eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and
western North Carolina, a total of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts of 10 inches are expected. Significant river flooding is
possible in these areas. Through Tuesday, Irma will also bring
periods of heavy rain into the Tennessee Valley, where an average of
2 to 5 inches with isolated higher amounts is forecast across
eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee. This includes some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents
throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood
threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 24.1N 81.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 82.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 27.8N 82.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 30.5N 84.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 32.7N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/0600Z 35.5N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 14/0600Z 37.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
Same 4 live cams but clearer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gFntKt8ABI
WPLG Local 10, ABC TV News:
Gusts +100 mph for Miami high rise buildings.
First responders no longer responding to calls.
Thanks DAVEY, I’m watching my cousin’s video camera pointed out the kitchen window at Bonita Beach. I consider evac from the entirety of South FL to be a bit over the top. Low lying areas maybe, but evac is a costly, difficult, and perhaps dangerous process as highways are suddenly filled with scared numbers far beyond the highway capacity. General preparedness in place, seems a far more cautious and prudent course of action. God Bless.
They need to do better coverage then as I have yet to hear one report mentioning Sarasota or Bradenton at all. If they are grouping it in with tampa bay they can say the greater tampa bay area which I guess would include sarasota Bradenton but it’s an hour south of tampa so who knows
Correct. And Houston area already needs bailout funds because only one house in 25 had flood insurance. If there is a major earthquake or other such disaster in the US soon following Irma, I think the insurance industry would almost collapse.
>>I can have a callous streak a mile wide when it comes to inconsiderate people.
Haha. Irony!
CUJO, ah yes I remember that movie. Quite scary at the time.
Thanks for that link.
trof is an oft-used shorthand for trough.
"9/5/2017, 9:48:36 AM · 597 of 2,084
StAnDeliver to M Kehoe"The front that is supposed to give Irma the steering turn just went thru here faster than anyone predicted on 7- , 5- or 3-day. If Irma so much as touches the Dominicas or Cuba (as predicted yesterday 7ast cone) it would offer maybe enough Hangup time to get this trough-on-wheels to glance her through the Keys or worst-case maybe through the Glades and out thru Cocoa..."
I lived on the Alabama Gulf Coast for most of my 60 years. Have run from a couple of these monsters. Nothing but respect for the power of Mother Nature.
Don’t know if it has been mentioned earlier, but DirecTV channel 361-2 is showing local Florida stations’ feeds. Right now it’s alternating between Miami and West Palm Beach.
I’m not being inconsiderate to them.
Letting them face the consequences of their own actions is a whole different think than the selfish people who think only of themselves, like those who don’t think of the impact of their actions on others.
I’m not being inconsiderate to them.
Letting them face the consequences of their own actions is a whole different thing than the selfish people who think only of themselves, like those who don’t think of the impact of their actions on others.
ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1000 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...IRMA’S EYE BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
A 93 mph (150 km/h) gust was recently measured at Carysfort Reef
Light near Key Largo. A National Ocean Service station in Key West
just reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/hr) and a gust to
89 mph (143 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
$$
Forecaster Landsea/Mello
NNNN
In meteorological circles.
I wouldn't expect too many other people to see it.
Current radar shows the eye moving straight North for a landfall east of Naples. This would be GREAT for people on the coast and the Tampa area. Even Naples benefits being on the milder west side of the storm.
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...24.8N 81.5W
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
The 8am location was 24.5N 81.5W. IRMA has gone straight north in the past two hours.
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