US Intelligence: North Korea's Sixth Test Was a 140 Kiloton 'Advanced Nuclear' Device

The Diplomat ^ | September 6. 2-17 | Ankit Panda

[generally]

I am betting Trump is focused on annihilation of NK, should they provide the slightest provocation.

[Vermont Lt]

Whatever radioactive materials that were used were measured within seconds of the event. Those little pieces of matter shoot through the earth in every direction.

EVERY country with half a brain measured that explosion. Every country with half a brain knew this information the day of the explosion.

The big question is what to do about it.

[Vermont Lt]

They are not going to attack us. They are not going to set off EMPs. They are not going to do anything directed at anyone. My guess is they won’t even bring in exterminators to get rid of rats on the DMZ.

North Korea is a big pile of nothing. Lots of talk. Lots of bluster.

Hut they do not strike me as suicidal.

[Vermont Lt]

Actually, they are not reinventing the bomb. A lot of the machinery is available on the market. Sure its precision, but with the advent of computer assisted design and production some of the hurdles we faced in the 40’s and 50’s are not hurdles any more.

I’ve never engineered a bomb. I could be wrong.

[laplata]

What, a Giant Economy Size Faraday cage?
Actually hardening our national electronic infrastructure, never mind all the business and personal electronics, would take decades, and completely change how we communicate. And power transmission. And transportation. And....

>><<

You are way off and need to do your homework before making statements like that.

[servantoftheservant]

China is the source for both Pakistan’s and NK’s nukes.

[RayChuang88]

North Korea has been manufacturing lithium deuteride--the material used as the "fusion fuel" for a thermonuclear bomb--for several years. It was only a matter of time before they actually built a thermonuclear bomb--and the last 2016 nuclear test may have been to test the "trigger" fission bomb needed to initiate the fusion process with lithium deuteride, which in turn causes the "jacket" of uranium-238 on the outside of the bomb to undergo a fast fission process.

If the pictures released by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) are not fake, then the Norks built a 150 KT nuclear bomb similar in class to the W80 warhead used by the cruise missiles carried by the B-52 bomber and the nuclear warhead on the Russian Kh-55 cruise missile and its modern derivatives. A 150 KT nuclear bomb can pretty much flatten the center of any city or when detonated at an altitude of 80 to 100 miles off the ground, create a massive EMP.

[RayChuang88]

The US tested a 400 KT pure fission device. The major drawback of these large fission yields is safety.

And the fact a 400 KT pure fission bomb was massively heavy, with only the B-36 and B-52 bomber capable of carrying the bomb. That's why during the 1950's the AEC developed what became the B28 and B43 bombs, which allowed a 200 to 500 KT device to be carried even by a smaller plane like the F-105 Thunderchief.

[SaveFerris]

Yeah, that seems kinda hard to believe too.

One of our 475kt W-88’s I’d believe.

[SaveFerris]

[If you had any personal experience in Pakistan from the 70s through the 80s and 90s, you seriously think “these people can’t possibly develop a nuclear weapon” - but they did.]

My (rather naive) cousin said this after traveling in the Soviet Union in the 1970's or perhaps very, very early 1980's.

Just because the people live in abject poverty doesn't mean their gov't doesn't buy what they want; for example the current North Korea problem (obviously the point you are making).

[gandalftb]

Good post.

Here is an excellent (unclassified) report used by the CIA to determine yield:

http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a223490.pdf

The claims by the Norks are highly suspect as the depth of the blast and the rock density are unknown. That’s why it’s called a heavily censored explosive yield.

I have seen the sniffing reports done by the Chinese and no radioactive markers have been released so far that are beyond background radiation.

If, if the 6.3 magnitude holds and that is unlikely, there is an absolute upper yield of around 600 kilotons. Looks like the magnitude will probably settle in at 5.9 so the upper theoretical yield would be no more than about 370 kilotons.

Guessing at the depth of the blast is difficult. Given that the blast cavern has already likely collapsed, with no surface emission the depth was likely at least 300 meters.

The rock density is fairly soft in that area allowing manual mining historically. So, the blast yield would likely be in the 110 to 160 kiloton range.

That is still a significant improvement for the Norks.

Boosted fission is very likely. The Nork’s main problem is acquiring refined beryllium. They have the ore but lack the very tricky refining technology. Even the Chinese have to buy it.

Without a significant beryllium neutron reflector, air blasts would be very inefficient compared to an underground test.

[arthurus]

I don't think Norkea is going to attack anybody. Mr. Un is angling for foreign aid in the way he has learned always works, or did with Bush and Clinton. I also don't think Trump is going to attack Norkea. He already has China under attack and has a beachhead economically. He is putting the screws to China and facing China with the choice of shutting down his sock puppet or seeing his economy go down the drain. I was speculating as to what is the extreme possibility. China will let it go pretty far before Xi puts his hand on Un's arm. For Xi there is the possibility- he might even see it as a likelihood- that Trump will back down in the face of PC pressure.

China is defending itself with a process that has been under weigh for a couple of years, that of dealing for oil in yuan and tying it to gold. He can't likely hold that line and allow inflation in the Chinese economy. We will see how that pans out.

[gandalftb]

Here is the Chinese calculation - 108 kilotons + or - 48 kilotons:

http://seis.ustc.edu.cn/2017/0903/c10094a191087/page.htm

[arthurus]

Several of my relatives made concrete plans to hunker down and defend were Mrs Bill elected. One of them is pretty good at organizing and was networking furiously. Everybody relaxed in November.

The national sigh of relief was very similar to the 1994 exhalationation after the Republicans won the mid-terms. I remember the tension in my own body evaporating when I saw that the Republicans were going to control the House. I remember all the world seemed to expect a major move to ban and confiscate ALL the guns if the Democrats won the elections that year. AR-15s were not so universally popular yet and the benchmark gun seemed to be the M1 Garand. The price for a serviceable one went from under $300 the previous January to $1500+ by the first week in November. By the end of November it had declined by half.

[arthurus]

Several of my relatives made concrete plans to hunker down and defend were Mrs Bill elected. One of them is pretty good at organizing and was networking furiously. Everybody relaxed in November.

The national sigh of relief was very similar to the 1994 exhalation after the Republicans won the mid-terms. I remember the tension in my own body evaporating when I saw that the Republicans were going to control the House. I remember all the world seemed to expect a major move to ban and confiscate ALL the guns if the Democrats won the elections that year. AR-15s were not so universally popular yet and the benchmark gun seemed to be the M1 Garand. The price for a serviceable one went from under $300 the previous January to $1500+ by the first week in November. By the end of November it had declined by half.

[dayglored]

> You are way off and need to do your homework before making statements like that.

I used to design spacecraft gear for both LEO and geosynchronous orbit. I know something about rad hardening. Please back up your assertion with some figures on the rad hardness levels (either design or tested) for today’s communications and power transmission infrastructures, and/or business/personal electronics. Then please compare with the predicted (and actual from past tests) levels of EMP effects from a large high atmosphere event.

I assure you I’ll understand the data you present. I’ve done homework on this since about 1982.

Otherwise, on what basis do you claim I’m “way off”?

[dayglored]

Or if you just meant that it wouldn’t take “decades” to get all that stuff rad hard enough, please cite the ongoing projects that are working on it and their completion schedule. I’d be interested to know about them.

[American Quilter]

Someone’s got to start the conversation. I nominate President Trump.

And congress will fight him every step of the way--the Democrats aggressively, and the Republicans passively. Makes me sick.

[laplata]

You make it sound much more difficult and problematic than I understand it would be. I won’t go back and forth with you.

Bottom line: we’re in deep trouble.

[Freedom56v2]

Thanks for posting...Some previous threads had posters indicating the NORKS were using very aged technology.

Question is where are they getting better technology?

What is being done to protect US...hopefully plenty and keeping under wraps.