[Dave W]

That’s the same as the National Weather Service.

[Ozark Tom]

Depends on where the priorities lie in the model. Wildly different probability for the storm track.

http://models.weatherbell.com/atcf/gefs_AL11_2017090512.png

http://models.weatherbell.com/atcf/geps_AL11_2017090500.png

http://weather.graphics/AL11_current.png