Posted on 07/31/2017 10:14:54 AM PDT by RoosterRedux
Forget that North Korea would be committing strategic and political suicide with a full-scale bombardment of Seoul. If a storm of artillery rounds fell on Seoul, would the city really disintegrate?
"Artillery is not that lethal," says Anthony Cordesman, who holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and is a national security analyst for ABC News. "It takes a long time for it to produce the densities of fire to go beyond terrorism and harassment." Even in a worst-case scenario, where both U.S. and South Korean forces are somehow paralyzed or otherwise engaged, and North Korea fires its 170mm artillery batteries and 240mm rocket launchers with total impunity, the grim reality wouldn't live up to the hype. Buildings would be perforated, fires would inevitably rage and an unknown number of people would die. Seoul would be under siege—but it wouldn't be flattened, destroyed or leveled.
If this sounds like squabbling over semantics, it is. But semantics and language matter. The casual, and largely unsupported references to Seoul's potential flattening punctuates the notion that Kim Jong Il is holding a city hostage. It recasts a complex strategic vulnerability as a cartoon: an entire city facing a perpetual firing squad. It also ignores physical laws, and the realities of modern warfare.
Barring the use of nuclear weapons or large-scale bombing runs, destroying a city requires an extended campaign of shelling and demolition, the likes of which the world hasn't seen since WWII. When the Chechen capital of Grozny was all-but-destroyed by Russian forces in 1999, it was the result of months of artillery and missile bombardments, as well as air strikes. There's no doubt that North Korea's massive deployment of artillery, and potential deployment of roughly 300 ballistic missiles, could wreak havoc on Seoul and its population. What's clear, however, is that a sudden barrage of shells and missiles would only mark the beginning of a battle for the city, not an apocalyptic fait accomplit.
And as Cordesman points out, flattening, levelling or otherwise destroying a city is an obsolete tactic. The firestorms of the past century have been replaced with surgical, precision-guided strikes, which can disable a city's communications, cut off its power and water supply, and pave the way for a ground invasion. "That's the real world," Cordesman says. "Not Dresden." The accuracy of North Korea's roughly 300 ballistic missiles is either classified or simply unknown, but nearly all are believed to rely on "strap-on" guidance, cobbled-together targeting systems that can't compete with modern smart bombs.
(Excerpt) Read more at popularmechanics.com
Yeah, General Mattis would like a word with them... Paging MLRS, and M109 ;-)
A lot depends on our finding and targeting noko’s artillery & ada before our shock and awe first strike. Then there is counter fire capabilities. Firing an artillery round locates the source of that round before it even lands on its target. It is then targeted.
Noko’s artillery would be lucky to survive even a 2nd round of firing their tubes.
The real issue is their NBC weapons.
In terms of personnel, the South Korean Military - both active and reserve - is more that twice the size of the entire United States military. The US has less than 24,000 troops in South Korea. South Korea has an active Army of 650,000 and a reserve of 5.2 million.
The United States active and reserve military is barely 2.1 million people.
During the Korean Conflict in 1950-53, the South Koreans bore the brunt of the casualties and lost 25 men for every single American killed and that doesn’t include South Korean civilians killed.
There are 7000 artillery pieces in North Korea aimed at Seoul and other points along the DMZ not to mention rockets.
The Entire US military has slightly more than 3000 artillery pieces to cover the entire world. They North Koreans could deliver nearly 1 million artillery shells and rockets on Seoul in less than half an hour.
You can’t defend against 60-70,000 artillery shells a minute.
The US just completed moving it’s headquarters and its manoeuvre units south out of the range of North Korean artillery. The Norths artillery is dug into mountains all along the DMZ and is well protected, you can’t take them all out at once easily.
The only effective strike is a pre-emptive )neutron) nuclear strike along the DMZ to kill all personnel before they have a chance to strike.
The South Koreans were the third poorest country in the world in 1953. They now have an economy that rivals ours. They have done more than their fair share.
I’d do some more research and reconsider your world view. South Korea is one of our best allies and has helped us around the world in many conflicts. Some clandestinely.
Their Marine Corps units, known as ROKs are, man for man, as good as ours.
I would not want to mess with an ROK unit.
No doubt written by a millennial.
Let's assume a fire rate of 3 rounds per minute. How long would it take the U.S. and South Korea to take out 12,000 artillery guns? According to you, less than 40 seconds.
“I’m not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed...” - General Buck Turgidson.
This makes a valid point. But what would happen to the world economy if South Korea was in a fight for her life?
Said by Anthony Cordesman who is frequently trotted out as a national security expert, although I don’t know why they think he’s an expert.
Depends on where the planes and missiles are.
“You can’t defend against 60-70,000 artillery shells a minute.”
Yes, you can. You have several options including a preemptive first strike. They are technically at war. Take out those artillery and the north has nettle left to fight with.
If South Korea has done their fair share then we don’t need to be there. Period.
If the artillery were left outside and kept on firing, there is no word (that I have read) as to how many rounds per minute might be fired.
They are dug into bunkers connected by miles of tunnels and can pop out from unknown locations along a 155 mile front.
CodeToad, I don’t know how old you are but I’d go get checked for dementia and curmudgeon disease if I were you. I’ve read your posts for years and your getting more ornery with each passing day.
Establish a naval and air blockade of NORK and evacuate Seoul with three carrier groups lying off shore and see what they do. This would isolate China as their only ally and put direct pressure on them.
They have their lefties just like us.
Preventive defense was viewed as provocation
Nope. Artillery is about shoot, move, communicate. First round of firing is at location A and 2nd round of firi g at location B
***Counter-battery radar detects incoming indirect fire and calculates where it was fired from. That location data can be sent by a communications link to friendly forces, who can then fire on the enemy positions, hopefully before they can reposition (the “scoot” part of shoot-and-scoot tactics).Counter-RAM systems track incoming rocket, artillery, and mortar fire and attempt to intercept and destroy the projectiles or provide early warning to the target area.[citation needed]***
Might not need nukes or much artillery, either.
The Norks could send a few million troops into
the tunnels burrowed under the DMZ that have
hidden openings in Seoul.
I also understand they are old, low/no tech systems
Mattis won't go into this without a plan to prevent massive damage to Seoul.
And I think there is a secondary goal of sending a message to Iran (and others)...that message being "we have the ability to cleanly and neatly get rid of you."
He never served in the military.
And any sort of coordinated attack from 12,000 artillery pieces is going to initially overwhelm any counter-artillery radar.
It would be hours before all 12,000 moles got whacked, and my initial point was it would be foolish to think you could silence that many guns after one or two shots each.
I think we are exponentially better than you think we are. However, I guarantee you that if the US had 12000 artillery pieces that fired, they would move. Every single one of them. It’s their doctrine. I’ve been with an artillery battalion on the Korea DMZ with 2ID. I’ve covered each of those little emplacements, and trust me, they shoot move communicate. And I have VA hearing aids to prove it. Lol.
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