How many missiles does North Korea have to fire to get a 99% probability of hitting Guam? If all they have to worry about is the reliability of their rockets they might need to fire say 2 or 3 of their scarce missiles. If every missile they fire has a 50% chance of being shot down, how many do they now need to fire? My poor statistics say 15 to 20.
It promotes deterrence by making the job of the attack planner much more difficult even when it is not close to perfect.
“It promotes deterrence by making the job of the attack planner much more difficult even when it is not close to perfect.”
How many ‘defense’ missiles are available to protect Guam?
How would you identify and prioritize the NK nuclear vs. conventional warheads?
Exactly.After an attack is launched you are desperate for an excellent probability of kill.
Prior to launch, OTOH, even a modest probability of kill gives an aggressor a lot to think about.
Opponents of “Star Wars” want to start the argument with the assumption of a launch. Well, guess what! Nobody thinks that is a wonderful scenario, with (or especially, without) an imperfect defense. But even an imperfect defense makes the effect of an attack less predictable and therefore less likely.