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Ride-hailing companies will grow eightfold by 2030, dwarfing the taxi industry: Goldman Sachs
CNBC ^ | 24 May 2017 | Anita Balakrishnan

Posted on 05/25/2017 7:44:42 PM PDT by Lorianne

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To: Persevero

I thought prices were determined by drivers bidding against each other. Am I wrong?


21 posted on 05/25/2017 8:48:44 PM PDT by bankwalker (groupthink is dangerous ...)
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To: socialism_stinX
Fully autonomous vehicle technology already exists. It's only a matter of testing and making sure that all or most driving scenarios are covered. Ford and Google have indicated that their technology is "just about ready", and Tesla is gearing up to release their fully autonomous vehicles in 2018. That technology may be ready for most driving situations around 2020-2021, and it could only improve after that.

And, again, with self-driving technology creating a much safer situation all around, insurance costs will drop dramatically. After that technology becomes the rule and not the exception, the time will come when people-driven vehicles could be eliminated via laws and regulations. Eventually, all vehicles will be self-driven, and driver licenses and drivers and auto-insurance companies, will be things of the past. Only manufacturers will have self-coverage on whatever they make, and then, paying for accidents will be something seldom seen.
22 posted on 05/25/2017 8:51:22 PM PDT by adorno (w)
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To: central_va

Actually, even drivers in rural areas will be benefiting from self-driving vehicles. Roads may not even be necessary, as long as the terrain is smooth enough to ride on. GPS is not only for roads, as you might already be aware of.


23 posted on 05/25/2017 8:55:02 PM PDT by adorno (w)
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To: central_va

Actually, even drivers in rural areas will be benefiting from self-driving vehicles. Roads may not even be necessary, as long as the terrain is smooth enough to ride on. GPS is not only for roads, as you might already be aware of.


24 posted on 05/25/2017 8:55:07 PM PDT by adorno (w)
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To: adorno

I would bet quite a lot that it will never happen that fast. The technology will fail repeatedly in live testing in the suburbs and in the country. There will be numerous collisions and one-vehicle accidents in testing and the whole thing will be pulled back for more engineering work. That’s just my view on this as a former software developer. It will be interesting to see what actually happens in the testing phase.


25 posted on 05/25/2017 8:55:09 PM PDT by socialism_stinX (Not only does socialism stink, but when given enough time it wrecks any national economy.)
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To: socialism_stinX

The technology is actually a lot more advanced than you suspect. It’s already here. It’s only a matter of implementation and perhaps regulation and education.


26 posted on 05/25/2017 8:57:00 PM PDT by adorno (w)
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To: adorno

You’ll never get people to give up driving their cars, trucks, and SUVs. People in the suburbs and the country will rebel against any legislators who vote for that kind of restrictive law. Any laws of that kind will be swiftly repealed in the next legislative session after those who enacted it are voted out of office.
;-)


27 posted on 05/25/2017 8:59:38 PM PDT by socialism_stinX (Not only does socialism stink, but when given enough time it wrecks any national economy.)
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To: adorno

Well when I see a car driving itself on a 2-lane highway out in the country where I live, then I’ll start to believe the technology actually works out here. So far I haven’t seen one.


28 posted on 05/25/2017 9:01:37 PM PDT by socialism_stinX (Not only does socialism stink, but when given enough time it wrecks any national economy.)
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To: Mr Rogers
If an Uber driver accounts for all their costs, then they make almost nothing.

That's the idea. It's why the owners are worth billions. And they'll eventually take the humans out of the loop. They won't be needed.

29 posted on 05/25/2017 9:02:51 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: bankwalker

“I thought prices were determined by drivers bidding against each other. Am I wrong?”

Yes, you’re wrong on that.

Uber sets the prices. There is the base fee, then a per mile/per minute charge (just like a taxi).

Uber adds on a fee of their own on top of that (taxi does not).

Uber takes 25-30% of the fare (taxi company does not).

Uber will “surge price” (they warn the customer and increase fare by 2x, 3x, 4x, whatever when demand is high (taxi does and can not)

There is no bidding by drivers.

I have driven for Uber, for Lyft, as a taxi, and am a member of several driver groups. So I’m certain of these things.

When surging, Uber and etc. are usually more expensive than a taxi.

When not, they are usually cheaper. Even though Uber takes all that money out of the fee. Here in SF you can Uber pool downtown for, like, $5 (it varies sometimes). There is NO WAY that is all it “costs.” It is being heavily, heavily subsidized.

Our MUNI buses charge $2.50 now, or $2.75. A bus!! and the bus loses money and is heavily subsidized. . . you can only imagine the real cost of an Uber ride.

Taxis MAKE money. The drivers can earn a low wage, if they work hard, with no subsidies whatsoever. The real cost of a ride is truly reflected in the taxi fare.


30 posted on 05/25/2017 9:28:58 PM PDT by Persevero (Love you guys)
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To: socialism_stinX

The Uber drivers I met all - 100% - had no intentions of ever driving another mile for Uber. They looked at it as some extra cash in their pockets without thinking about what it cost them to make that cash.


31 posted on 05/25/2017 9:35:00 PM PDT by Mr Rogers
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To: Persevero

But who is subsidizing the price of the rides...the ride-hailing company or drivers who own their own vehicles?


32 posted on 05/25/2017 9:36:23 PM PDT by socialism_stinX (Not only does socialism stink, but when given enough time it wrecks any national economy.)
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To: kvanbrunt2

what happens when Über investors stop subsidizing each ride by about 50% ?


33 posted on 05/25/2017 10:39:12 PM PDT by vooch (America First)
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To: socialism_stinX

They have created software that is not programmed in the traditional sense.

It is a model of a brain that learns from doing and absorbing data. Exactly like a kid learning to drive.

The most advanced self- driving machines actually have zero code specifically related to driving. They simply watched humans drive and learned it. Then simply while driving itself and seeing others, the AI actually improves itself like a real driver.

As they get more common, the self driving vehicles (and other AI gadgets watching us work) will network and improve the collective global AI’s ability at an exponential rate. Until this all-seeing global system becomes far more intuitive than humans could ever imagine...


34 posted on 05/25/2017 11:06:53 PM PDT by varyouga
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To: central_va

Actually you have it backwards. It is human drivers that cause gridlock due to drivers acting in their own selfish interest, constantly jockeying for advantage. With adequate spacing, constant speeds can be maintained, which allow much more volume on our highways.


35 posted on 05/26/2017 2:31:56 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Lorianne

This says more about the sorry state of the taxi industry than it does about ride-sharing. My assessment of the ride-sharing industry is that doesn’t seem to lend well to a highly profitable operation over time. Uber is basically an app for gypsy cabs, when you think about it.


36 posted on 05/26/2017 3:08:17 AM PDT by Alberta's Child
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To: socialism_stinX

You raise a good point there. I suspect a lot of people who drive for companies like Uber actually earn a lot less money than they think. You hear more and more stories all the time from former Uber drivers who left the business because they figured out that it simply wasn’t worth their time, effort and wear & tear on their vehicles.


37 posted on 05/26/2017 3:12:10 AM PDT by Alberta's Child
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To: adorno; socialism_stinX
Fully autonomous vehicle technology already exists. It's only a matter of testing and making sure that all or most driving scenarios are covered. Ford and Google have indicated that their technology is "just about ready", and Tesla is gearing up to release their fully autonomous vehicles in 2018. That technology may be ready for most driving situations around 2020-2021, and it could only improve after that.

Fully autonomous vehicle technology has existed for almost 60 years ... and has been "just about ready" for decades.

Self-Driving Cars Were Just Around the Corner -- in 1960

There are several reasons why self-driving cars may always be "just around the corner." The technology is the easy part. Legal issues and the simple economics of self-driving cars are the two biggest constraints.

38 posted on 05/26/2017 3:17:28 AM PDT by Alberta's Child
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To: Lorianne

Robo car technology is just a higher form of cruise control. It may have it’s place on the low traffic volume interstate environment but not universally. It would be nice to have an RV motor home drive itself while you slept in the back cruising down I-95. But general use, no way. The problem is FedGov will force nascent not ready for prime time technology on the people. They will eliminate the self driving option altogether forcing us to buy high tech, high maintenance robo cars. Driving is too expensive already.


39 posted on 05/26/2017 3:24:44 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: socialism_stinX
Liability will indeed be the biggest hurdle for autonomous vehicles, unless a clear legislative solution is developed. It will be a double edged sword. Once it is demonstrated that the accident record of autonomous vehicles, on average, is superior to that of conventional vehicles, fleet operators will start being held liable for additional damages when a live driver has an accident. The lawyers will argue that it is negligent to fail to use the new technology. Operators will be damned if you do, damned if you don't. The trial lawyers are probably already holding conferences on how to maximize and sustain the cash flow.

On a converging track, automated accident prevention systems will become steadily more prescriptive. It may be that live drivers will sit idle in cabs most of the time, monitoring automated systems. At this point, the Teamsters will demand that drivers be paid like airline pilots, the jobs having largely converged.

40 posted on 05/26/2017 3:39:00 AM PDT by sphinx
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