If you go and examine what the UK imports in from Germany...the key item is cars (800,000 per year), mostly from Stuttgart and Bavaria (Porsche, VW, Mercedes, and BMW).
My humble belief is that it’ll be readily apparent by December of this year that no treaty can be accomplished and the big-name car manufacturers will rush into Merkel’s office and ask what the heck is going on? Merkel will wake up and realize the dramatic impact upon the German work force and economy....then try to talk to the EU.
Oddly, at that point in time...the idiots of the EU will be more tied to Macron, who wants the harsh BREXIT stance to continue on. Why? If you destroy the German car import situation...you will hurt Germany to a significant degree, and suddenly the global bankers behind Macron will be gleefully smiling because they lured Merkel successfully into a dark corner and no way to escape.
By the end of 2018, the non-existent exit treaty will be apparent and stock prices on BMW, Mercedes, and VW will all be in some decline. Employees will be going through some minor lay-off talk, and the pro-Merkel enthusiasm will be hard to find in the southern half of Germany.
The EU likes Macron...but mostly because he’s the long-term leader of their stance, not Merkel.
Except, the British pound sterling is already way down and the impact on German car exports to UK (not their largest market) is already being baked into the cake.
Seems Brits so inclined, will be paying more for their beloved German automobiles.
Brussels holds 3 aces;
Scotland
Wakes
Ulster
The English establishment will cave on every point.
Short-sighted Leave voters have basically opted for a UK recession in exchange for few benefits. Resentment of EU immigration seems to have been the most common motivation of Leave voters. Few Brits really believe the UK economy will do better outside the EU and the ones that do are mostly geriatrics!