Posted on 05/05/2017 4:02:28 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
U.S. sanctions bill may lead China to review oil embargo to N.K.: experts
SEOUL, May 5 (Yonhap) -- The United States' latest drive to tighten sanctions against North Korea, heaps pressure on China to consider whether to use its last-resort punitive action, namely an oil embargo, to rein in the unruly ally, experts said Friday.
The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the legislation on Thursday which authorizes sanctions on those providing North Korea with crude oil and other related products. It also requires the U.S. government to determine whether the North is a state sponsor of terrorism. The bill must pass through the Senate before it becomes law.
The move effectively targets China which supplies almost all of the North's energy needs such as crude oil, diesel and jet fuel.
The U.S. has been pushing for China to do more to curb Pyongyang's advancing nuclear and missile programs.
Suspension of crude oil exports is widely viewed as China's last-resort punitive option on Pyongyang.
In 2003, China halted its crude oil supply to North Korea on the pretext of a facility breakdown as Pyongyang launched a ballistic missile. But the action lasted only three days.
But recently there have emerged signs of possible changes in China's attitude toward North Korea. Chinese media have raised the need to curtail or halt its oil supply if North Korea is engaged in strategic provocations such as the sixth nuclear test.
China said in mid-February that it will halt imports of North Korean coal, a main source of cash, in line with the United Nations Security Council sanctions against Pyongyang. The decision will be valid through the end of this year.
On Tuesday, North Korea made a rare direct criticism of China, warning that Beijing has crossed the red line of their bilateral ties by implementing tough sanctions.
Sun Xingjie, a North Korea expert at Jilin University, was quoted as saying by the South China Morning Post that there would be a major impact if China halts crude oil supplies for at least six months.
But some analysts said that China would not risk exhausting its last-remaining leverage if North Korea carries out only low-intensity provocations.
Beijing has been reluctant to aggressively rein in Pyongyang for fear that pushing North Korea too hard could lead to instability in the North and undermine China's interests.
"The U.S. legislation could be quite burdensome for China, but it is also hard for Beijing to brush it aside," said Cho Bong-hyun, a senior analyst at IBK Economic Research Institute.
"A Chinese embargo on crude oil is unlikely as it could spark social disruption in North Korea and also damage China's oil pipelines. But I see there is an ample chance of Beijing curtailing oil exports."
P!
Would the "damage" be due to sabotage, or to disuse?
What does China get from a relationship w/NK? What is their motivation?
How the hell has North Korea managed to build a massive military stockpile?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3545259/posts
China can make similar economic problem for NK by not buying coal from NK. China is the largely major buyer of NK coal. Without those sales to China NK currency reserves will be a big hardship for the regime to manage, and belt tightening will be felt all across the poor economy.
On April 11-13 there was said to be a ban in China on coal from NK. It was debated then, outside of China and NK, how porous that ban would be and how long it would remain. On April 21 there were six NK coal ships docked at a Chinese port and each reported to be unloading coal.
China can make a number of sanctions work. The question is will it.
China should put a Rocket Fuel Embargo in place...
Some reports suggest that, to enlist Chinese cooperation, Trump Administration made substantial concession on issues such as South China Sea, economic sanctions, and post-Kim arrangement in Korean Peninsula. If that is not enough, nothing will and what will happen next would not be of their liking. There will be severe consequences and China will own the whole disaster.
Actions with real bite are yet to be taken. The first course of action seems to be to rattle N. Korea enough to defacto capitulation or sow enough among N. Korean elites to eliminate Kim Jong-un. Whether it succeeds or not, it is best to separate elites from Kim Jong-un's inner circle so that they would be on the sideline and leave Kim Jong-un and his ilks on their own when push comes to shove. Make Kim Jong-un more paranoid and hysterical so that effective communication and decision-making inside the regime collapse.
The trouble is that China can opt out during this phase whenever it feels like. Then South China Sea, economic sanction, and unilateral action by U.S. have to be back. Still they may hope that Trump will run into another crisis somewhere and get distracted. Then China will quietly fold while holding onto gains it made.
How you suggest Trump is dealing with China and China in the context of Korea is sounding more and more like an Obama-type of foreign policy -
let me score some major “breakthroughs” for my legacy, no matter the long term consequences of what I compromise to get them. Those consequences will hit those that follow me
[which might include a Chinese instigated puppet sitting in Pyongyang and putting even more “do-things-my-way” pressure on South Korea with de facto “soft” (economic) power as the leverage],
meanwhile, on paper, I get credit for the great “breakthroughs”.
If I had to ask G-d for a solution, I’d ask for an internal implosion in NK, Kim assassinated, military lost as far as an agenda and it’s generals not wanting a war, with South Korea rapidly moving in to affect a peaceful reunification under its terms. Then it would be up to China to decide if it was going to be the foreign aggressor claiming to support a regime that internally no longer existed, and whose remaining leaders did not want it resurrected. At least I can pray.
Article mentions....”Suspension of crude oil exports is viewed as China’s last-resort punitive option on Pyongyang”....
If China’s even considering this then they’re very likely at the end of their rope in dealing with Kim...
China really does have it’s hands full right about now.....Kim was delighted when we put the Thadd in S. Korea because he knew that would move China more toward supporting him and drive a wedge of tension between China and the US......
Wasn’t long before China requested a deal that Thaad be removed before china assumed talks with Kim on disarmament. (Kim was happy he got what he wanted)
High stakes games going on....
You know if China were ever to put a full blockade on imports from N.Korea....the regime would collapse in 2-3 years, perhaps less.... N.Korea cannot exist without China’s help.
The problem is Kim’s playing some really high stakes to retain the loyalty of the people and establish his rule as legitimate. Even willing to speak against China, as he did this week. So I’m not so sure he wouldn’t still continue regardless of what China does.
His father was willing to let thousands and thousands of people starve to death in the 90’s.....I wouldn’t be surprised if KIm let’s them freeze and starve to death over next winter as well....
The question is....will the people stand for this again?????
.....”The first course of action seems to be to rattle N. Korea enough to defacto capitulation or sow enough among N. Korean elites to eliminate Kim Jong-un...... Whether it succeeds or not, it is best to separate elites from Kim Jong-un’s inner circle so that they would be on the sideline and leave Kim Jong-un and his ilks on their own when push comes to shove.”.......
Part of the problem with that is that ‘the elites are afraid of the lower classes’ as much as they may be of Kim.....the average citizen in the city have seen how the elites live, and even more so have obtained enough visual of how the rest of the world lives to hate the elites as much as they do Kim. ..and the elites know they are hated.
If only 20 to 25% of the N.Korean population are the core and or elites....you would think there would be enough of them to rebel....but without the army also supporting them to revolt they likely could not pull it off.
The realistic expectation may not be a coup or uprising, but minimizing their will to fight. Soften them up as much as possible.
What we don't want is another “deal”....but I think Kim will try and get one none the less....and China will try to pressure us to go with it....the most kim will do is temporary hault his nuclear in exchange for whatever.....we've been down that road too many times...he has no intentions of yielding...his main goal is to become a Nuclear State..period.
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