As U.S. and China find common ground on North Korea, is Russia the wild card?

Reuters ^ | May 3, 2017 | James Pearson and Alexei Chernyshev

[TigerLikesRooster]

As U.S. and China find common ground on North Korea, is Russia the wild card?

By James Pearson and Alexei Chernyshev | SEOUL/VLADIVOSTOK, RUSSIA

When North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sent Lunar New Year greetings this year, the first card went to Russian President Vladimir Putin, ahead of leaders from China and other allies of the isolated country, according to its official news agency.

Some academics who study North Korea argue Kim could be looking for Russia to ease any pain if China, which accounts for about 90 percent of North Korea's trade, steps up sanctions against the isolated country as part of moves to deter its nuclear and missile programs.

U.S. President Donald Trump lavished praise on Chinese President Xi Jinping last week for Beijing's assistance in trying to rein in Pyongyang. A day later, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson pressed the United Nations Security Council to impose more sanctions to further isolate Pyongyang.

There is no sign of any sustainable increase in trade between Russia and North Korea, but business and transport links between the two are getting busier.

A new ferry service starting next week will move up to 200 passengers and 1,000 tonnes of cargo six times a month between North Korea and the Russian port of Vladivostok.

Shipping data on Thomson Reuters Eikon shows there has been a recent steady flow of oil tanker traffic from Vladivostok into North Korean east coast ports.

Last Thursday, five North Korean-flagged oil tankers had loaded up at Vladivostok-area ports and identified North Korean ports as their destination. It was not known what products they were carrying.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Russia must be providing emergency life-line. It is probably not enough to make up for any shortfall from China if China really clamp down on N. Korea, but it would be better than nothing. This also gives Putin some leverage on Korean matters at little cost. Russia may try to barge in at the last moment and demand their cut. N. Korea has been using Russia as a counterweight to China whenever its relation with China goes sour. Kim Jong-il did once only to abandon Russia when things warmed up again with China. So Russia is probably wary of being used again.

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!

[AndyJackson]

I am amazed at how many folks here do not understand the urgency and global consequences surrounding this crisis. It’s not just another tempest in a teapot. Whichever way it goes, the strategic balance of the world will be altered.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Yes, there will be a major shift in strategic landscape (of the world.) Karma will be catching up with everybody.

[Mariner]

“Whichever way it goes, the strategic balance of the world will be altered.”

The world has America, Russia and China at the top of the food chain.

What will be different after the Korea event?

[gandalftb]

Russia is not a player here, compared to China.

If the regime collapses, the Chinese Army will occupy NK to keep SK from doing so.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Yes, Russia is now relegated to a bit player in E. Asia, but they always seem eager to play a superpower whenever it can with whatever leverage available to it.