If you pull up the district by district map from the last referendum vote, there’s an interesting angle to the voting.
Those districts bumping up against the UK ‘state’....roughly 12 of them on the south side of Scotland...voted mostly 65-70 percent ‘no’. I would expect that trend to continue.
Those districts on the north and central region were mostly 50-to-60 percent ‘yes’.
If the yes vote wins, I would anticipate the dozen southern districts to then announce that they will also have a regional referendum, and ask to leave Scotland (probably within 60 days).
In this case, it’d likely be a 60-to-65 percent vote to exit and form a state (my name for it would be New Caldonia), and then ask to be part of the UK.
Scotland-lite would be a bit shocked and 25-percent less than the original Scotland. They would lose around 850,000 residents to New Caldonia.
Course, this might also open up the London to some exit vote as well. For the EU, it would be a very negative game and you’d see dozens of regions within Europe ask for their own exit options and exit votes. I don’t think it’d be a pleasing thing, and the EU might say no to a London-nation-state existing within the EU.
It’s a bigger mess coming down the pike than people think.
Could we be getting ahead of ourselves, though? May signed the letter. The letter’s gone to Brussells. But has it been handed over yet? Or was Art 50 triggered with her signature?