I agree with everything you've said about the advantages of being the first to market. The problem with an app-based product is that the cost of entry is very low -- and there's always going to be someone who can come up with some new sales pitch to drivers and customers alike.
I suspect there are few entrants in that market because everybody sees that it is not a profitable enterprise in the long run.
“The problem with an app-based product is that the cost of entry is very low”
Once you are competing against a multi-billion dollar company, the barrier of entry is no longer low.
How would your million dollar company respond when everywhere you launch your service, Uber gives away millions of dollars of free rides for customer retention?
You’ve gotta have a big war chest.
“I suspect there are few entrants in that market because everybody sees that it is not a profitable enterprise in the long run.”
It’s not profitable when you are at a tremendous competitive disadvantage.
But, in spite of this, there are actually many other companies trying to enter that market space. You just have not heard about them because they are too small.
“self-driving cars are probably much further in the future than most people realize”
I think the opposite. I think they are going to arrive rapidly. Technological acceleration keeps getting faster.
The biggest obstacle to self-driving cars is government bureaucracy. But big corporations have become adept at navigating these waters and getting things done.
The second biggest obstacle is legal responsibility when it comes to who is at fault in an accident. Big companies will take on the risk at first. Then insurance companies will adapt.
The third biggest obstacle is consumer resistance. That’s not very hard to overcome. The biggest part of this will be addressing safety, such as preventing hackers from taking over cars.
It will be like touch tone service on landlines. First it was an option. Eventually rotary was not an option.
Expect for self-driving cars to be commonplace in 5 years.
In 10-15 years the debate will be what to do with the hold outs who still want to drive. Many places will start outlawing human drivers, or at least limiting where they can drive.
Of course a civil war in the US or a major world war would slow down this timeline drastically. So might major economic disasters.