Posted on 02/12/2017 4:26:47 PM PST by janetjanet998
Edited on 02/12/2017 9:33:58 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
The Oroville Dam is the highest in the nation.
“... a surgical procedure that would help you ...”
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I am below the standard medical “action level” for intervention.
I have to wait for it to get worse before they will do anything.
Don’t get me started about the medical mafia.
I won’t get you started on that. It’s a real mess. Our medical insurance system looks a lot like the lower half of the Oroville spillway.
GA DOT had stored many big spools of fiber optic cable under the bridge
for at least the last 5 years and a homeless guy set it on fire.
Not much news from Juan Browne today, but here’s the link...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJUFAD28Kf0
He starts off with a quick discussion on the overpass collapse in Atlanta.
Prayers up to you my friend (assured).
I agree. I believe it will come back to haunt them, big time. How?
Let me give a theoretical scenario- call it "flubber failure".
(1) Dam Flood control Inspections for 2014/2015/2016 stated "satisfactory" for "flubber failure" as it was inspected, tested, analyzed and noted (including photos). FERC even noted to look for a related "flubber failure" in a Part 12 Category 1 recommendation. DWR said "done - is satisfactory".
(2) After 3 years of doing, what they say, is competent "flubber failure analysis" and thorough inspections, we arrive in 2017 with the blowout crisis of the spillway chute & the crisis of the Emergency Spillway disaster (both non "flubber failure" related).
(3) FERC orders independent experts into the mix.
(4) Experts find very damaging information on the spillway (flaws & operational maintenance info which with any competency would have been fixed or raised as a serious problem - but never was).
(5) DWR say's to press "flat tires happen".
(6) Experts destroy "flat tires happen" meme.
(7) DWR is roasted in the press by articles quoting the early findings of experts.
(8) DWR performs another "flubber inspection" - and lo and behold they find "flat tires" waiting to happen (that can be vulnerable in a scenario to DHS security standards). Never mind all of their prior "flubber inspections" testing and analysis found anything wrong. It was "satisfactory".
(9) DWR is about to be roasted thoroughly in the next fully data augmented ground penetrating radar report from the Experts (i.e. report: "flat tires" everywhere on the remaining spillway waiting to happen at any moment). [which could panic the public - and while DWR's engineering crisis is already in the world spotlight]. DWR sees this coming.
(10) DWR beats the expert's report timing release by a letter notifying FERC of findings from their "flubber failure inspection" that could be deemed a security risk. DWR specifically denotes a "Critical Energy Infrastructure Information" (CEII) in their cover letter (which if granted would seal subsequent reports as all reports include all findings in the spillway including the experts' reports).
(11) FERC grants DWR a CEII status. All reports to "flubber failure" are tied to the expert's new spillway findings. Thus ALL spillway reports are "secret" to the press and the public.
= = The next shoe(s) to drop:
(12) The press is going to put 2+2 together on the "flubber failure" maneuver. How? The information is there if they look at the FERC document date sequence, structural failure inspection "flubber location" description, and apply a little mechanical engineering design knowledge of the "flubber failure" scenario (to "bad guy" tactics).
(13) The press is then going to figure out that this "flubber failure" security measure is a very remote scenario.
(14) Politicians are going to find out what this "flubber failure" security scenario is as they will hold hearings to get information. They may be under gag orders to not speak of such a scenario as this would be a DHS matter (classified as a security matter & to be kept confidential).
(15) Politicians will be fuming as this "flubber failure" as to why this scenario was submitted 2 days before the new expert's report was to be published.
(16) The press will be fuming as they likely will perceive it as a "dodge" by DWR on taking heat - besides the fact that DWR gave the OK for so many years, completely missing this "flubber failure" scenario - compounding a look of "incompetence". Deceit will be on the minds of the press, fully warranted or not.
There will be some angry press people, along with residents in downstream towns. People are presumably potentially in danger’s way, and FERC steps in with the wide paint brush. I’m kind of curious as to what authority FERC has beyond the power plant. I’m sure that it’s coded somewhere, but it seems odd. It’s a reservoir. It’s a recreation lake. A water supply. A river. And there’s a power plant attached.
I’m predicting some HUGE speculations going forward, because when it appears that they’ve got something to hide, people will recreate the worst-case scenarios. Maybe not all the media, but there were some pretty crap-tastic reports when the information was flowing freely. Without the anchor of new facts, that will get worse IMHO.
Oh, and flat tires always have a root cause, whether it’s a nail or screw in the tire, underinflation with long duty cycles (overheating, see Ford Explorer), defective valve stem, mischief, overloading, or manufacturer’s defect.
I’ve seen them try to put power transmission lines into the CEII status. As if nobody can find them. It’s almost comical in some instances. Heck, I have a 161,000 volt transmission line going across my property. Being in the business, I know where it comes from and where it goes. And if you walk a bit, or drive, you can find out the same thing.
These things are visible on Google Maps if they’re more than about a year old.
I believe it is a DHS overlap requirement (security against "attack" as noted in the SacBee article & FERC regs).
btw- the "youtubes" are all over this now. I've seen at least 3.
Ford Explorer - I chuckle on your reference here as I have a Ford Explorer Sportrac. Converted it to a research vehicle with internal AC power systems, large deep cycle batteries, and instruments & sensors. I can track earth anomalies from geoseismic emissivity. Vehicle has 308,000 miles on it. Still going fine (if you put in the maintenance).
I also had an Explorer. 1999, 4.0 SOHC engine, 4.10 gears. Added 32 inch tires, Auburn limited slip rear differential, skid plates, and a slight lift. The whole issue of the Firestone tire blowouts can be summed up to this (IMHO) - Standard inflation pressure was relatively low, and in nearly every case, the vehicle was loaded heavily and tire pressure was a bit low. If you’re already starting low, a little bit low is a lot low. :)
I liked my Explorer.
The memo from March 17th is available...
https://cbssacramento.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/oroville-dam-document.pdf
Thanks for the link.
It appears that they’ve dropped the plant output by 500 cfs.
The cover letter is dated March 17th but the BOC expert's memo is dated March 10th. It's the March 10th BOC memo that has all of the initial BOC findings in it that caused DWR such heartburn.
I've been using the BOC memo/report in prior posts up thread. I've compiled a list of post links below that help group the relevant BOC material findings & analysis.
DWR's Project Safety Compliance Report strategy will come back to haunt them
Putting a different, more simple minded spin of DWR’s recent activities:
Most people’s first visual of the Oroville situation was seeing the main spillway shooting firehouses of water in from the side. “Why is it doing that?”, we asked.
Then it was noted that the two ports nearest to the initial slab failure weren’t flowing. Where does pressure go when you block a firehouse?
Then the local Oroville paper publishes a photo of a spillway abnormality right where the failure will occur. Obviously, DWR was not monitoring their own spillway.
Then some local hikers publish a video of concrete spalling off the spillway. Its not until after this that DWR closes it down to investigate.
But not to worry - DWR has the “auxiliary” spillway that should work just fine, even though they had apparently done no hydraulic or geologic assessment. But once they get it running at a couple % of it’s rated capacity, they suddenly decree: “everyone run for your lives”, whether you want to or not.
Afterwords, to save face, DWR puts out videos of their decisive action: helicoptering in bags of rock, the most expensive construction technique imaginable. This is followed up by an army of 24/7 ground workers getting time-and-a-half and double-time. But if any of those workers post or comment to social media on the effectiveness of this work - THEY’RE FIRED.
And how about the Hyatt powerhouse itself, named after DWR’s founding father? It is apparently leaking like a sieve, requiring a recurrent “herculean” effort to shore up according to DWR’s current director. It has a generator that hasn’t been operational for years and won’t be for another year, if all goes to plan. And it has a bypass valve that could increase Hyatt’s current output flow by a third, but it hasn’t been operational for a decade, even though many parts for it were upgraded years ago.
Well, at least the main spillway gates are still functioning - sort of. They were not able to close them off sufficiently to work on the entire spillway at once during the last shutoff event, and there is no indication that this predicament has changed.
But rest assured, the main dam itself is “just fine”, according to DWR. Except that it has some flow-through wet spots significant enough to apparently generate surface erosion at high lake levels.
There’s also the Thermalito generator powerhouse, just downstream from Oroville. This 110MW facility has been offline for 5 years due to a fire which started a few of stories underground in the powerhouse and then burned for days. How does an underground fire keep burning without a fuel source?
And there’s the Clifton Court Forebay. This isn’t actually a part of the Oroville complex, but it’s a catchment basin downstream in the delta that much of Oroville’s contract water goes through before being pumped to SoCal. DWR recently operated it incorrectly, which caused enough damage to require months for repair. http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water-and-drought/article138528578.html.
With this as a backdrop, DWR is now attempting to put a gag order on any real news of anything they’re up to. No wonder they are looking for new PR people to inherit this s***storm. Hope they’re willing to pay them time-and-a-half and double-time.
I looked for the later one but had no luck.
I understand what happens once something is designated as a security concern.
I am certified under the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) program,
and under their guidelines, you are not even supposed to acknowledge
that there are things that you are not supposed to talk about.
It is the old ‘loose lips sink ships’ theory...
I went to youtube and searched for oroville and then filtered for ‘today’,
and you are right, the conspiracy theories are already in full force.
If ‘they’ will not say what is going on, then the public will invent something.
Welcome to FreeRepublic, and thank you for your input.
Fearlessness is required to maintain honesty in any position, even losing a job to keep your integrity. I suspect this crisis situation will blow wide open as the engineering evidence is too stark to hide. It will be a painful process for anyone who "chose unwisely" along the way.
1. DWR wins (gets info "secret")
2. DWR loses (info not secret)
3. Insider #1 "knows" and can reveal "secret"
4. Insider #1 loses (reveals secret & something bad happens)
5. Insider #1 wins (keeps secret & nothing bad happens)
6. Nefarious bad guy #2 wants to know "secret" for creating harm
7. Nefarious bad guy wins by learning of "secret" (something bad happens)
8. Nefarious bad guy loses by not learning of "secret" (nothing bad happens)
Here is the game changer:
9. Nefarious bad guy is very intelligent. Because of item (1), DWR has revealed there is a security risk from CEII rating grant. AND because of (1) DWR has left a "footprint" of material at FERC. Bad guy figures out public design info & sees that DWR has indirectly and publicly revealed a "weakness". Bad guy can now make something "bad happen" or try.
This is where I fault the choice of DWR or whomever in the loop with FERC on the action of item (1). Because of this "smart person" game changer (which we have proof of activities in the US), DWR/FERC/DHS should (a) enact appropriate military grade security in anticipation of an attempt (I'm serious here). and (b) they should delete some information off of the FERC website (they know what to delete - even if it is filenames).
So if Insider #1 says nothing, the actions taken of (1) and (9) enabling (6)&(7) defeat keeping silent.
Left off maintenance, sometimes the tire is just worn out.
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