How close are we to a solution in Syria?

Al Monitor ^ | February 10, 2017 | Amed Dicle

[Texas Fossil]

The SDF commanders in the region who spoke to Al-Monitor say liberating Raqqa will be easier than militarily seizing Manbij. The operation has been going on for four months and is expected to continue until the summer.

SDF officials have been talking to Kurdish and Arab politicians and opinion leaders to discuss the future of Raqqa. The diplomatic side of this operation is the most crucial.

Before touching upon these issues, one should understand the importance of Raqqa. Geographically, Raqqa is in the middle of Syria and is of strategic importance. It has been under Islamic State (IS) occupation over the past three years and has been the main source of revenue for the organization. It is the organizational and supply center of IS both in Syria and Iraq. The liberation of Raqqa will be a deadly blow against IS and mark the turning point in the marginalization of gangs benefiting from the war.

Raqqa is the most diverse city in Syria with Arab, Kurdish, Armenian, Turkmen and Christians. It is difficult to know what IS did to all of these people.

People of nearly all ethnic and religious backgrounds participate in the operation to liberate the town. But it is the SDF that is carrying out the operation with the participation of many women and men who are natives of Raqqa.

SDF commanders say they will first besiege the city and later target the city center with arms to be supplied by the coalition. The SDF currently advances on the city from the east, west and north. The Euphrates River is located to the south of the city and has two bridges on it. If the city is besieged, the coalition will reportedly hit these bridges and the Euphrates will be a natural part of the siege. In this case, IS would have no option but to go to Deir ez-Zor to the southeast.

Such a development will also introduce new political developments. The initiative will be a cornerstone in getting rid of terror in Syria and will facilitate the establishment of a new Syria. Kurdish officials from Northern Syria and Rojava say the liberation of Raqqa will be "the guarantee of a democratic and federal Syria and a free Rojava." Again, many people view Raqqa's liberation as an indispensable part of the Kurdish-Arabic alliance in the region.

What will be the administrative model for Raqqa after the military liberation of the city? Kurdish officials told Al-Monitor the model that will be set up in Raqqa will be a resolution model for all of Syria. They note that they have discussed this with the Arab tribes in the region and have received crucial material and moral support from them. Recently, many Arab tribes visited the battlefront and supported the fighters. Political and military authorities here say after its liberation, Raqqa will be run by a civilian administration and people will preserve their own identities. These authorities emphasize that military forces have no goal of administering the city themselves.

This issue has also been discussed with the coalition authorities led by the United States. The new US administration continues supporting the operation like the previous one. The strong rapport between the Pentagon and the SDF administration is expected to become even stronger in the coming period.

The relationship between the United States and the Northern Syrian forces won't regress until Raqqa's fate is decided. Raqqa's fate has come to mean Syria's fate. After Raqqa is liberated, there will be a gathering to form the new Syria. Those who were strong in the field will naturally have more effective cards at the table.

But Raqqa isn't Northern Syria's and Rojava's only agenda. The Astana and Geneva talks are also closely followed here. And then there's the draft constitution prepared by Russia. Russia's draft is neither rejected nor accepted — it is considered to be a draft that should be discussed. It is taken as an insufficient step, but a first one by international powers. Geneva and Astana meetings haven't generated hope for a resolution yet. Russia took a step by preparing this draft. Russia suggests autonomy for Kurds, but the Kurds think their issues will be solved not through autonomy, but through a democratic, federal Syria. In Russia's draft, other peoples and faiths outside of the Kurds have been ignored. That is also seen as a flaw. But it is important that Kurdish rights are mentioned in a document for the first time.

Some sources Al-Monitor spoke with talk of a "social contract draft" being prepared to act as an alternative constitution for Syria. This draft is expected to be announced soon. The draft will be presented as the Constitution for Federal Syria. How this draft from Northern Syria will be received in Damascus, Moscow and Washington is a very important question. But whatever the outcome is, it will be very important for the solution in Syria. If it's rejected, chaos will continue.

Another development in the region is the Turkish operation in al-Bab. What's happening there is generally perceived as a fiasco. This is a useful reminder: Erdogan invaded the Shehba region to the north of Aleppo over his anti-Kurdish sentiment and his ambition to prevent the Kurds from attaining a status in Syria. They took Jarablus and other places from IS without much fighting. But now, Erdogan's plans appear to be failing at al-Bab.

Erdogan sold out his friends of five years whom he was supporting in Aleppo. Just to be against the Kurds, he gave up all of the Free Syrian Army's (FSA) gains in Aleppo. He made a nasty deal that may be his demise.

The Erdogan administration first said they would create a buffer zone from IS 20 kilometers deep (12 miles) after they took Jarablus and Dabiq. But their goals turned out to be different. Forces in the region saw that Erdogan was only pursuing his own agenda there. That is why the FSA, his allies at al-Bab, are upset at Erdogan. They think they have been sold out in Aleppo. Cracks in the alliance between the FSA and Erdogan will surface soon.

Erdogan's defeat at al-Bab, Northern Syria Forces' Raqqa operation and their growing relations with the United States, and the draft constitution Russia submitted are all developments of vital importance for Syria. In the spring and summer months, these developments will for the most part be implemented, and by the end of this year a "New Syria" may emerge.

Read More: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/02/turkey-syria-main-gate-raqqa.html

[Texas Fossil]

Things are moving quickly. I don't believe the Assad government will receive this well, but it probably reflects action on the ground near Raqqa.

There are a lot of factions in turmoil. It's still unclear how it will finally be resolved.

[Secret Agent Man]

How close are we to a solution HERE?

[Southack]

There’s not “diplomatic” squat.

Right now the SAA is smashing ISIS East of Aleppo in 1 village after another.

Heavy armor, artillery, and air versus irregular militia in areas with weak cover save for houses.

It’s a rout. A slaughter. A thing of great beauty.

Turkey flipped over to Russia’s side regarding Syria back circa Dec/Jan.

Without Obama giving them cover any longer, the “rebels” are toast, as Assad knows that they are all ISIS.

For Syria, the military solution is the *best* solution. Wipe out ISIS.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

Well, now that the U.S. isn’t trying to destabilize the country (a’la Egypt and Libya) in order to put radical Islamists in power...

[Texas Fossil]

I did not write the article.

Assad is not going to get what he want in this.

This was his announcement.

[The Toll]

I have very good friends in Egypt. These people are truly grateful to Sissi and they despise Obama and what happened. They want so much for Americans, and the world to come there and explore the amazing history. I work with these people, and they are genuinely great folks.

[BeauBo]

About a week ago, the Kurdish-led SDF announced the start of the final phase of the operation to take the ISIS capital of Raqqa.

The lead elements of the the Kurds has drawn close to sniper rifle range of the outskirts of Raqqa today. They have probably a few weeks to go, to bring a cordon in close enough for a siege, after which it is likely to take a few months to clear the city.

Both Raqqa and Mosul should fall this Summer. The remaining ISIS strongholds of al Bab and Deir ez Zour are under pressure from the Turks and Syrians/Russians, respectively. So the end game for the ISIS Caliphate looks like this year. There is a good chance that the end game could settle out for Syria as a whole this year as well.

[The Toll]

It’s not our country. Problem solved.

[elhombrelibre]

Why are the Kurds toast?

[BeauBo]

I think that the rebels Southack referred to as toast, were the so-called “moderate” rebels, like the Free Syrian Army, not the Kurds.

As he mentioned, they were recently ejected from their stronghold of Aleppo, and seem to have been sold out by their main patron, Turkey. They are losing ground and infighting.

I think his point is that with the loss of Obama’s major covert support (TOW missiles, etc.) they are toast. Most of them will probably re-flag themselves a few more times before things settle out, and most will probably survive - but they won’t be running the country after all.

The Kurdish position is much more stable for the time being, with solid American supply/support (at least until Raqqa falls) - but ultimately, Erdogan wants to kill them, and Assad wants to rule them.

The Turks seem to have bitten off more than they can chew, by insisting on getting the mission to capture al Bab. Al Bab is the Fallujah of Syria - the place where the local population most broadly supports ISIS. It could be some high casualty urban warfare to take that city.

Erdogan doesn’t want a mountain of coffin coming home, or an embarrassing defeat, right before his April referendum to make himself effectively dictator (Sultan). The Turkish military has been gutted by Erdogan’s purges after the coup attempt, so their experience in al Bab, and Turkish domestic politics, will play a big role in their decision to later ramp up their war against Syrian Kurds, or pull in their horns.

Russia seems to be trying to convince/coerce Assad to maintain the Kurds as an autonomous/semi-autonomous buffer against Turkey, rather than reverting to total Ba’athist dictatorship over the area. Turkey has long been a strategic rival of Russia, and the Kurds are Turkey’s biggest internal challenge - great potential leverage. The kinda-communist Syrian Kurds really know how to warm Russian hearts with old classic Russian battle songs from WWII that they learned from Grandpa, and calling each other comrade - they do have some affinity.

[Fhios]

I think Trump is happy cheering Russia’s military on vs Radical Islamic Terrorists. Trumps busy making deals for the Syrian refuge camps.

[oldasrocks]

I think the better solution is to spread the rumor that ISIS now has smuggled in nukes. After 30 days we set off a few nukes and blame ISIS. 20 or so nukes spread out over the Middle East should do the trick.

[zzwhale]

ONE nuke away

[Texas Fossil]

That was the last pic that I had. That was almost 2 days ago when it first was posted. Not much is coming out about condition of forces there, but I know it is growing. Surrounding area has volunteers helping now. Have read reports that 1,000 Arab women have joined the YPJ. That really does not surprise me. Take of that damn burka and pick up a weapon. I don’t blame them. Especially the young ones. With some Kurdish women helping them, they will kill ISIS too.

[Texas Fossil]

Note the 17th division military base near the entry point of SDF forces. I suspect ISIS has used it for storage too.

And there is the issue of the Dam. It’s still in ISIS hands. Will be no small matter to take it. I’m sure that is being worked on.

[Texas Fossil]

They are not toast. They are very much engaged, but doing fine. Pretty tough soldiers, our Special OPs like them.

[Texas Fossil]

“reverting to total Ba’athist dictatorship over the area”

Assad can forget that crap. Is not going to happen. He is in no position to force it.

It’s been a long time since Assad subjected Kurds. And even the Arabs respect them. This puts handcuffs on Assad.

[elhombrelibre]

I don't think they're toast either. I think that's wishful thinking. Most guerrilla wars drag on for a long, long time. And once ISIS is contained, it's so-called Caliphate destroyed, the Russia and Assad will have a tougher time claiming that anyone who doesn't want the Assad family dictatorship to continue is an ISIS.

Also, consider how long the Turks have been fighting the Kurds; it shows that the Kurds are very resilient. Their victory at Kobane was when the war against ISIS really began to turn.

[Texas Fossil]

Yep. And the brave Kurdish women, knowing what they faced with ISIS fought a desperate battle and survived. Have to give them credit. Of course, I remember pressuring trying to get Obozo to be shame into giving air support. Finally he did relent and that broke the back of ISIS in the siege of Kobane.

Now those women are conveying that to the Arab women who were liberated from ISIS. Life changing experience.

[elhombrelibre]

Yes, and we can hope that the Iraqis, who will soon break the back of ISIS as an organized fighting force, will begin to think of the shared need for national security, not just parochially thinking of what’s best for the tribe. Wars often make nations. Time will tell if this civil war has changed their outlook enough to get them to collaborate for national goals.