Period.
Posted on 01/29/2017 8:54:53 AM PST by ColdOne
President Trump is considering a move that would increase the official unemployment rate by a full point, and it's an idea that many liberals would be OK with.
That's because it wouldn't involve any workers losing their jobs. Rather, the new administration is considering switching the calculation the Labor Department uses as the official unemployment rate in place of a broader definition of what constitutes unemployment.
It's not a bad idea, said Heidi Shierholz, until recently the Labor Department's chief economist. Done properly, the change might give a better, more complex portrait of what is going on in the economy, she said. In any event, it wouldn't do any harm. "It would not be tha
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
All the official stats need a makeover,, roll them back to the 1970’s and recalculate going forward to get a true picture of where we are and how far we need to go.
www.shadowstats.com
Hopefully, somebody in the Trump Administration will explain how so instead of just making the change and expecting the Fake News Media to explain it.
Of course they are ok with it. They will use it to show how bad things are under Trump.
Makes sense - Obama had them change the parameters of what constituted unemployment/inflation, etc., so that we are living with numbers as fake as Warren’s Indian heritage....
He ought to look at inflation too.
If he recalculated inflation and gave Seniors a one-time back SS adjustment for understated inflation, the Republicans would make some serious inroads into the seniors.
Lets see:
330 Million Total, of that there are
250 Million in the WORKFORCE, of those there are
45 Million on food stamps
95 Million NOT in the Work Force
Sounds an awful lot like 50% give or take.
Agree. Also new calculations must be used retroactively to refactor all unemployment rates for past 8 years
The government should reach back and recalculate it for all recent past years.
U-6 seems the most accurate to me since it includes the under-employed and those who would work but have given up looking. It is at 9.2%. The Trump team wants to use U-5 which adds the “giving up looking” group only.
I’m betting that Trump can push U-6 down much faster than U-5. But U-5 will win the day. I wonder which Steve Bannon would pick.
What a concept. An unemployment rate that has as its base everyone who is unemployed.
And it needs to be done now so it can be attached to obammy. If Trump waits too long it will all be on him according to the press.
Even a month is probably too long.
This is a laudable idea, actually using government statistics to tell the truth as opposed to promoting a political agenda. Unfortunately the last administration has so politicized these statistics that I think it will be necessary to use two sets of numbers for the foreseeable future: The “Obama-B.S.-politicized” unemployment rate and the accurately reported one. Sort of like a weather forecaster presenting both Fahrenheit and Centigrade readings.
Otherwise the Democrat political ads will write themselves for the 2018 elections - “Unemployment up 3% etc etc...”
Exactly he has to do it NOW.
The MS Fake News club will blame the true figures on Trump, guaranteed.
Accurate data and statistics make good decisions possible.
Liberals jigger the numbers to allow unreliable results.
Garbage in, garbage out.
This is a big step in the right direction.
Once we get good, real numbers, then many decisions by government and private business will be much better.
For a free market to work, the information must be as reliable as possible.
TWB
Period.
Transparency is important. Implement the new system and present the new data series side by side with the old one for a reasonable transition period. Backdate the new system gradually. When enough time has passed, we could drop the old system but leave it archived and readily accessible for comparative purposes.
Bad information and old information lives forever electronically. Long time series are valuable. Any recalibration needs to be very clearly marked and constantly referenced.
All the official stats need a makeover,, roll them back to the 1970’s and recalculate going forward to get a true picture of where we are and how far we need to go.
www.shadowstats.com
Exactly. It’s scientific to use the same measurement analytic over time, otherwise it turns into gaming the statistics for political purpose. Doing so over time erodes trust in the numbers to the point where everyone knows the numbers are a lie (like having full employment with 100M out of the workforce).
U6 is the best option of the ones cited.
Without U6 as jobs become more available and people who had previously given up looking for work come out of “retirement” to seek jobs the UE rate will go up and not down. This is opposite U3 which counts you employed if you give up looking for work.
Lets face it the U3 number was fiction that helped the Golfer President who never called up CEO’s to ask them to keep jobs here, to not close manufacturing plants.
Lazy Obama played more Golf than Trump who builds Golf course resorts.
That would probably require doubling social security payments and they don’t have the money to pay the pathetic amounts we are getting now.
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