Posted on 01/09/2017 2:16:34 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
US would shoot down North Korean ballistic missile test if it threatens territory, allies, Carter says
North Korea's nuclear weapons capabilities and ballistic missile defense programs constitute a "serious threat" to the United States, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said on Sunday.
The United States is prepared to shoot down a North Korean missile launch or test "if it were coming towards our territory or the territory of our friends and allies," Carter said during an appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press."
North Korea declared on Sunday it can test-launch an intercontinental ballistic missile at any time from any location set by leader Kim Jong Un, saying a hostile U.S. policy is to blame for its arms development.
Kim said on Jan. 1 that his nuclear-capable country was close to test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
"The ICBM will be launched anytime and anywhere determined by the supreme headquarters of the DPRK," an unnamed Foreign Ministry spokesman was quoted as saying by the official KCNA news agency, using the acronym for the country's name.
The North is formally known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
The United States said on Jan. 5 that North Korea had demonstrated a "qualitative" improvement in its nuclear and missile capabilities after an unprecedented level of tests last year.
There are many ways to parse this sentence. They can launch a missile, but U.S. decides that it does not threaten her territory yet. Then no action will be taken.
This could turn into another useless red-line which won't be enforced.
P!
Don’t we have to activate the “shoot down” before we know where it’s going? I thought we needed to get to it before it hit apogee.
Missiles don’t maneuver much in boost phase and it’s relatively easy to figure out the general direction in which they’re going and a general area where they might hit even while they’re still on the way up.
The best chance to kill one is while it’s in boost phase but our only missile defense tech that survived the Obama Administration can actually hit them on the way back down. Its not anywhere near as good a chance, though.
What can we do to mitigate that danger? During the time I was defense secretary, I considered a preemptive conventional strike on their Yongbyon nuclear facility. We rejected that option in favor of diplomacy. Such a strike could still destroy the facilities at Yongbyon but probably would not destroy their nuclear weapons, likely not located there. In 2006, Ashton B. Carter, now secretary of defense, and I recommended that the United States consider a strike on North Korea’s ICBM launch facility. I would not recommend either of those strikes today because of the great risk for South Korea; at the very least, any such plan would have to be agreed to by South Korea’s leadership, since their country would bear the brunt of any retaliatory action.
We could also pursue non-diplomatic approaches, such as disrupting their ICBM tests, not at their launch sites but over international waters. Indeed, our diplomacy would have a better chance of working if the North Korean government realized that we were serious about non-diplomatic alternatives.
Time is of the essence. If we don’t find a way — and soon — to freeze North Korea’s quest for a nuclear ICBM, this crisis could all too easily spin out of control, leading to a second Korean War, far more devastating than the first.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/to-confront-north-korea-talk-first-and-get-tough-later/2017/01/06/9334aee4-d451-11e6-9cb0-54ab630851e8_story.html
This can be only done by destroying their missile/nuke production and launch facilities. Verifiable freeze requires permanent presence of monitoring personnel who are able to do their job without being impeded by NK regime, which isn't going to happen.
Does anyone recall if Obama threatened this before? It seems like some POTUS did. Didn’t at least one fly over Japan before (not sure under which POTUS)?
This sudden burst of sabre ratteling is disturbing. Not that this is the wrong thing to say, but I question the timing ...
Obama’s regime is keeping their options open...
I do not believe that NK would allow inspectors on their sites.
Assuming that in the first step NK launch an ICBM and it will be shot down (> 95 % probability?) instead of the >50 % probability that it malfunctions. Then NK has to respond, but what will they do?
The US has sensors - primarily three radars - TPY-2 in Japan, COBRA DANE on Shemya, and PAVE PAWS in Fairbanks, Alaska, that can track any eastbound launch out of North Korea. There are about a dozen interceptors in Fort Greeley, Alaska that could shoot down a launch towards the continental United States. The determination of whether or not a given launch is threatening depends on its measured trajectory and the covariance (uncertainty) of the measured trajectory. The uncertainty in the trajectory would be expected to quite small compared to the defended area (about 3 million square miles.) I am not sure if Southern Canada counts as defended area, it depends on political decisions made by the Canadian leaders. (There was a time when Canadians snubbed inclusion in North American missile defense. Vancouver, Toronto or Ottawa being nuked by the twerp was their decision.)
The probability of a successful intercept is almost certainly better than 90%, given a single launch.
Carter should be keeping his yap shut, going on “Meet the Dimwits” doesn’t help.
drone this fat pos... and his top echelon before they dosomething stupid...
what do we do if he sends his million man army south...???
he has the nuke... and building more
IF I WAS HIM I WOULD TAKE THE SOUTH
Another reason the left lost - according to Carter (hmmm) if the missile isn’t threatening anyone, then the test is fine and the Norks get to learn a lot from the test. According to Trump if the missile leaves the launch pad, it gets shot down...maybe even before.
It’s the dumbest statement I’ve ever read.
There’s always IF with this administration.
That's not news, that's been SOP or part of the normal ROE for the interceptor batteries (Patriot, THAAD, GBI) since they were deployed. Why else would you have interceptors if you weren't going to launch in defense of your territory?
The real question is, would they be authorized to launch even if a NK test missile was headed towards open ocean? Japan has said they may shoot down anything overflying their territory.
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