I say “bunk” on this.
Smoot-Hawley happened way way back, when America actually MADE THINGS IN AMERICA.
Now is entirely different. Now we import everything, much of it from China, and Mexico.
That is a massive difference.
Hugh.
I agree that things are different. I think the biggest difference is the role played by energy in the modern industrial economy. If you have cheap abundant domestic energy, you can have tariffs. If you look at Trump’s cabinet nominations, it’s clear his whole policy is about energy.
and Smoot-Hawley did not cause the great depression either.
So if China sells everything to us and we impose tarrifs, they look at their growth rate and think, “sure we can survive a few percentage point drop in growth but I bet the US will hurt more.”
Inflation will be the result of a tarrif war.