If Trump pushes a tax cut, he rewards about everybody and will improve his standing with the electorate. If he cuts regulations he will generally reward a majority of businesses and only marginally distress some large businesses which want the barriers to entry erected by regulations, so Trump will improve his standing with the electorate. If Trump pushes the expansion of the energy sector, he brings down the price of gasoline to consumers and energy to manufacturers and he will improve his standing with the electorate.
However, when Trump monkeys with the trade balances he will do what I have been insisting is inevitable since the primary debates on this issue-he will inevitably favor one sector of the economy over another sector of the economy and he is likely to very materially burden consumers. There are negatives associated with trade policy reform, as necessary as that reform might be in order to preserve our manufacturing base. Even threatening to break rice bowls by reforming trade agreements, will certainly engender blowback.
Similarly, repeal of Obama care sounds great but there are many who enjoy subsidies and supplements from the government who will lose them in a straightforward repeal. If the repeal is accompanied by a replace, all of the problems of Obama care are reintroduced: who is covered and who is not, who pays and who does not etc.
I have toyed with the idea that perhaps Trump should stall on reforming Obama care and not move to save it but let it crash and blame the Democrats and leave the field wide open for an intelligent reform which will be difficult for Democrats to oppose because we will be in a crisis.
In any event, I think Trump should delay action on these two areas until after he takes all the low hanging fruit and enhances his standing with the electorate.
