[expat_panama]

Here are a couple money quotes:

Trade deals have not harmed the U.S. economy. Rather, our economic woes largely have been about anti-growth Obama-nomics.

trade deficits tend to rise during good economic times

trade has expanded opportunities for U.S. entrepreneurs

Usually when people say that they look at deficits, measure them, and check jobs/wealth/income.  

[ConservativeMind]

What’s great about this is that excise taxes will allow trade to freely occur.

Trump isn’t talking about “trade bans.”

[Hardastarboard]

The author makes the mistake of focusing on one aspects of Trump’s “diagnosis” - that free trade is hurting us. There are arguments to be made on both sides of that line (I’m not going there), but Trump also noted that a lot of what is killing us is corporate taxes and regulations. Fix a lot of that, and you’ll have more economic growth generally. That will cure a lot of what’s wrong with America pretty quickly.

[billyboy15]

“Trump railed about trade deficits. But that meant ignoring that U.S. trade deficits tend to rise during good economic times - as strong domestic growth attracts imports,...”

*If Trump brings mfg jobs home from overseas the deficit in trade since the products will be domestic.

[nathanbedford]

Trade deals have not harmed the U.S. economy. Rather, our economic woes largely have been about anti-growth Obama-nomics. That is, increased taxes, hyper-regulation, expanded government spending and debt, and a lack of leadership in advancing free trade have raised costs, created uncertainty, and undermined private investment and entrepreneurship.

I am inclined emotionally to agree with this assessment but I certainly cannot credit the author's reasoning or data for that conclusion. For example, he compares the rate of growth on trade with Mexico to the ready growth of GDP, a false basis for comparison when one considers that it is very easy to double and quadruple growth from a low level and very hard to double and quadruple growth of the GDP. So I find his data misleading and his method of arguing dubious.

More, even if he is correct that "trade deals and not harm the US economy" one must ask whose economy? If we are talking about machine shop operators in the rust belt servicing the automobile industry, they certainly have been hurt. If we are talking about Apple selling telephones manufactured in China, probably they have been helped. If we are talking about Silicon Valley and IT service providers, they too have been helped. If we are talking about aging tool and die makers too old to learn a new trade, they clearly have been hurt.

It seems to me the problem with trade is much like the problem with automation and the advent of robots, ultimately the benefits will outweigh the problems but there are victims and there is always a lag time between the initial pain and the ultimate gain.

I think the country needs a serious debate about our trade policy and that must start with real data and honest analysis. The problem is both Democrats and Republicans have been taking special interest money and virtually left the trade deals to be negotiated by K St. who do not represent Joe Sixpack who is losing his manufacturing job to sexy new industries with lots of lobbying money to spend. A further problem is that the political process has to inflict pain on one segment or another. Trump is proposing tariffs which would, for example, inflict pain on consumers in order to protect manufacturing workers. Politicians don't like to inflict pain and they certainly don't like to be caught doing it. That is why we our trade posture is as distorted as it is because of the ideological bent of the Bush and Clinton administrations and the wanton disregard of American sovereignty by the Obama administration. Congress certainly does not want to put its fingerprints on any measures causing pain. We will see what Obama does.

[Crucial]

Yet you do have to have exports, even if imports will surpass them. There is a point where the difference between them can mean economic ruin, particularly in a debt economy. Trump also wants to curtail regulation which is a good step forward.

[ßuddaßudd]

I believe they have lied to protect and cover 0bama . .

[Scott from the Left Coast]

“Under free trade, more robust growth in places like Mexico and China mean expanded opportunities for U.S. businesses and workers.”

This is a money quote and it’s a stop-the-presses quote...this is not necessarily true at all (that U.S. businesses and workers will see net expanded opportunities) if the robust growth in Mexico and China is due to cannibalizing American industry to achieve it.