He completely ignores the probable 10 point advantage from an in the tank media complicit with the Democrat party.
He also ignores the 4 point shift to Republicans if the Libertarians had voted for a real chance at smaller government.
His identity politics are becoming obsolete. They are predicated on the inevitability of the Democrat indoctrination machine to keep black people on their plantation, white people terrified of being called “racist”, and Hispanics inside an artificial and false definition that includes everyone from Cubans to Argeninians.
Because Nate gave probabilities of win/loss, rather than simple vote percentages, he has more ‘splainin’ to do.
For example, I saw the Real Clear Politics chief on TV this morning, and since he only dealt in vote percentages, he could say, “Look, we were within 2% [or whatever it was] of the actual result.”
Nate OTOH gave predictions like “Hillary has a 71% of winning” (his final pre-election prediction).
So Nate looks much worse than RCP.