Good analysis; except that North Carolina is a huge factor with its 15 EVs and it being essentially a draw. Here is my list of links to watch on Silver’s analyses.
176 in Tossup (15 states)
27.2% - 09 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/colorado/
49.9% - 06 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
39.2% - 04 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/
52.4% - 29 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/
51.9% - 15 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/north-carolina/
74.4% - 11 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/
72.2% - 06 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/
63.8% - 18 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/
25.3% - 20 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
18.8% - 13 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/virginia/
19.1% - 10 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/minnesota/
19.2% - 10 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/
23.2% - 16 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/
17.9% - 05 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-mexico/
22.5% - 04 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/maine/
180 for Trump (22 states)
182 for Clinton (DC + 13 states)
I’m not buying that NC is really in play for the Dems. Hard for me to believe he loses a Romney state with a GOP governor and 2 GOP Senators. But basically, same logic as FL. If he loses it, the election is almost certainly lost.