Count on most of that 7% Johnson support breaking Trump’s way.
Good point.
I don’t think a Libertarian pres candidate has ever gotten anywhere near 7% of the final popular vote. So the bulk of his supporters in polls, will have to go somewhere. And best guess is more go for Trump than Hillary.
It has to break his way in the battleground states.
It doesn't matter anywhere else. I think that most of the third party votes are "protest" votes in deep blue and red states where it wouldn't make any difference even if they voted for one of the two major party candidates.