Posted on 11/05/2016 7:39:25 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
For the first time since 1984 a Republican presidential candidate has a lead among Catholic voters; and it is substantial. Donald Trump has at least 50% of this voting bloc while Hillary Clinton is at 37% which is less than what Walter Mondale got while losing 49 states in 1984.
This lead is the 3rd largest since this measure was first taken in 1952; it is worth noting that no Republican has gotten more than 48% of the Catholic vote and lost; and no Democrat has gotten less than 47% of the Catholic vote and won.
http://cara.georgetown.edu/presidential%20vote%20only.pdf
In the states still hanging in the balance this edge will be very helpful.
In New Hampshire where 35% of the state is Catholic, this translates to a Trump lead over Hillary Clinton of 17.5% versus 12.95% among about 1/3 of the electorate.
In Pennsylvania where 27% of the state is Catholic, this translates to a Trump lead of 13.5% versus 9.99% for Clinton in more than a quarter of the electorate.
In Nevada where 24% of the state is Catholic, this translates to a Trump lead of 12% versus 8.88% for Clinton among approximately a quarter of the electorate.
In Michigan where 23% of the state is Catholic, this translates to a Trump lead of 11.5% versus 8.51% for Clinton among over one fifth of the electorate.
In Colorado where 23% of the state is Catholic, this translates to a Trump lead of 11.5% versus 8.51% for Clinton among over one fifth of the electorate.
http://www.beliefnet.com/faiths/2004/11/state-by-state-percentage-of-white-evangelicals-catholics-and-black-protestants.aspx
Among Evangelical Christians Trump has an even larger lead. The Washington Post has reported that he has the support of 71% of this important voting bloc. This did not report what percentage of the Evangelical vote Clinton is getting so for purposes of this comparison ALL non Trump votes were given to Clinton.
This data is very significant because the two groups are clearly mutually exclusive so the percentages are as pure and we are likely to get.
In New Hampshire where 22% of the state is Evangelical, this translates to a lead for Trump of 15.62% versus 6.38% for Clinton, assuming she gets every Evangelical vote not going to Trump.
In Pennsylvania where 21% of the state is Evangelical, this translates to a lead for Trump of 14.91% versus 6.09% for Clinton assuming she gets every Evangelical vote not going to Trump.
In Nevada where 20% of the state is Evangelical, this translates to a lead of 14.2% versus 5.8% for Clinton assuming she gets every Evangelical vote not going to Trump.
In Michigan where 25% of the state is Evangelical, this translates to a lead of 17.75% versus 7.25% for Clinton assuming she gets every Evangelical vote not going to Trump.
In Colorado where 25% of the state is Evangelical this translates to a lead of 17.75% versus 7.25% for Clinton assuming she gets every Evangelical vote not going to Trump.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2016/10/09/the-deep-disgust-for-hillary-clinton-that-drives-so-many-evangelicals-to-support-trump/
When combined the two groups in New Hampshire comprise 57% of the electorate and will give Trump 33.12 points of the 51 he needs. And will need 17.88 points among the remaining 43 points available.
When combined the two groups in Pennsylvania comprise 48% of the electorate and will give Trump 28.41 points of the 51 he will need. And will need 24.59 of the remaining 52 points available.
When combined the two groups in Nevada comprise 44% of the electorate and will give Trump 26.2 points of the 51 he will need and will need 28.8 points of the available 56 points available.
When combined the two groups in Michigan comprise 48% of the electorate and will give Trump 29.25 points of the 51 he will need and will need 22.75 points of the 52 points available.
When combined the two groups in Colorado comprise 48% of the electorate and will give Trump 29.25 points of the 51 he will need and will need 22.75 points of the 52 points available.
The numbers show these numbers show why these states are well within Trump’s reach. Get out and vote to push Trump over the top.
Just curious of Virginia? 2012 vs 2016
True words
Good analysis
Catholics for Trump ping
Thank-you as a Christian and a Catholic for making my day with this posting. God Bless.
After what Podesta said about Catholics I hope there is a big turnout. If he thinks so little of them he is likely just as biased against Evangelicals.
Neither group condones the dishonest self serving Clintons who are nasty pedophiles. Why didn’t Christian Syrians get saved first instead they were getting persecuted?
When 150,000 Haitians were victims the Clintons saw it as a good time to make money instead of being humanitarian.
These Clintons are Rapist creatures from hell.
They are evil people for sure. Thankfully, their crimes are being exposed.
Vote Trump 2016
Just an anecdote, but perhaps illustrative. Every last Weds. of the month, my K of C council meets for brunch. Back in the days of the primaries, I would say a majority of the political discussion was pro-Hillary and anti-Trump. This continued through the conventions. But as the campaign progressed I sensed a slow shift in sentiment. At our meeting at the end of October almost everyone was pro-Trump, handing out campaign flyers and the like. For many, it was the abortion issue that brought them around. That and the religious freedom controversy. I sensed many of my brother Knights had had enough of it. We’re in Central OH and I think Trump has a better than even chance of taking the state.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.