Posted on 11/04/2016 9:58:05 PM PDT by Az Joe
As we wind down this election, we begin to hear the familiar chime: The election is over and/or can be predicted because of what we see in the early vote. Don’t buy it. While we might be able to make some broad projections based upon early voting – maybe – we’re more likely to substitute our own judgments and arbitrary intuitions for actual results.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Bogus polls are far worse at predicting election results.
Depends on the state. In NC, the early voting is ~60% of the vote. In VA, like 3-5%.
FL, almost 60% of vote is in.
Translation of this article: don’t believe votes, cuz Trump is winning.
That tells me exactly nothing.
How many votes did Trump and Clinton each get out of those early votes?
And after you answer that one, what does that mean as far as the totals on election day?
Translation: Trump is winning the early voting. If the witch was up early voting would be the new hotness as the predictor of final results.
Nope. Read the article. Little better than reading tea leaves. Misleading and just plain wrong many times so as to be a worthless measure. Try again.
And recall the exit polling fiasco in 2004. It’s always something.
TRANSLATION: Early voting is going in Trump's favor, so we want to disparage it as a predictor of the election.
Obama went into election day in NC with around a ~450-500k vote lead and lost by 2%. Hillary will start with ~150k less of a lead not counting independents. This was on the old north state politics thread earlier.
One thing I think they’re not thinking about is how many people who are registered as dems are voting for Trump this election. Our area is rural and has a small population. I’ve been surprised at the number of dems I’ve spoken to who have already voted for him or are going to next week. They want nothing to do with Hitlery in the WH.
If it’s going on here, it’s going on elsewhere and could cause a surprise when they start counting Tuesday night. Hope so!
He’s a Yale lawyer, as is Hillary.
LOL. That’s a phrase I’ve not heard in awhile. True, too.
Did you read the article fully? It is a poor predictor of final result. It just is.
I would not be surprised at all if Trump does quite well with Dems a la Reagan, 1980 & 1984.
If our area is any indication at all, that could well be what happens. Praying for it!
Early voting does indicate enthusiasm.
Again, it depends on the state. In NC, early voting is the MAJORITY of the votes and nearly 2/3 of Democratic votes. In VA, it’s peanuts.
Do you have a link to back that up or a study?
Link to a study or article backing that statement up?
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