Posted on 11/04/2016 8:26:18 AM PDT by 11th_VA
PHOENIX — As Election Day approaches, things are beginning to look up for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in Arizona.
For the second time this week, a poll has given him a statistically significant lead over his rival, Democrat Hillary Clinton, in the Grand Canyon State.
On Thursday, a poll from NBC News, the Wall Street Journal and Marist gave Trump a 5 percentage point lead among likely voters in the state. He holds a 46-41 advantage, which is larger than the poll’s margin of error of 3.7 percentage points for likely voters.
Trump’s lead dropped to 4 percentage points when registered voters were taken into account, but that is still larger than the poll’s 3.2 percentage point margin of error for this subset of respondents.
The poll was conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 1. In all, 1,120 people were contacted by either landline or cellphone and asked several questions about the election.
Of those, 948 were found to be registered voters and, narrowing it further, 719 respondents were classified as likely voters.
Thursday’s poll will likely serve as another encouraging sign to Trump’s campaign. Earlier this week, a poll from CNN/ORC also gave a 5 percentage point lead in Arizona to the Republican.
Statistical analysis website FiveThirtyEight.com said Thursday that Trump is likely to score a narrow victory over Clinton in Arizona and stands a good chance to take all 11 Electoral College votes in the state.
Try 8.
Looks like you’re in the 11th district like me. I wrote in Mickey Mouse, who did you?
You think we have a chance in VA with NOVA?
Trump is going to outperform the polls, like he did in the primaries.
Hope you are right... early voting indicates the rats may take NV.... Reid has his thugs working OT to steal...
**On Thursday, a poll from NBC News, the Wall Street Journal and Marist gave Trump a 5 percentage point lead among likely voters in the state. He holds a 46-41 advantage, which is larger than the poll’s margin of error of 3.7 percentage points for likely voters. **
TTTT!
Early voting is just voting early, it doesn't mean that those votes on Nov 8th won't beat them.
OBAMA - 50.8
Romney - 47.8
Now look at the Bluest Counties, it's NOT NOVA:
Apply the Cross Over results below from a recent National Poll:
And TRUMP wins VA !!!
Here in NV, early voting is most prevalent in Las Vegas, which leans left. In the rest of the state there is less early voting compared to day of - and it is the rest of the state that will have an outsizedTrump vote.
It is a bit dicey because 70% of the vote comes from Vegas (Clark County), but Clark is not strongly Democrat, just marginally Democrat (though the number of immigrants here is exploding, not just Mexican but Asian as well). The rest of the state is solidly R enough where they can still swing it over. I’d look for a 3% margin for Trump, depending on Democrat defections to him, of which there will be some.
Thank you for that information. I believe election day is going to see a massive R turnout, like Trump had in the primaries, and that isn’t being taken into account.
Was there anything in the local press about DJT Jr’s visit to Ahern Mfg. there yesterday?
Mickey Mouse for President?
Yes, it was briefly covered.
Preety good. I will predict that Penn doesnt go his way but Wisconsin does...and maybe MI.
I think CO does Trump and I also think WI and Maybe MI.
no, its for Congress. my idiot Dem Congressman is running unopposed.
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