Posted on 11/03/2016 9:01:45 AM PDT by mandaladon
predictit.com hasn’t shifted much. I believe it’s because it’s in Europe and there’s a large amount of crooked money being bet solely to prop up Hillary odds and a large amount of “stupid” money being bet on Hillary because European media is even more out of touch with what’s actually going on compared to even the false pictures being presented by the U.S. Shillary enemedia.
That was prescient.
I wouldn’t think so - this is about the right interval for a bet that’s more than a SWAG. In a horse race the betting is closed before the horses go. In politics you get to change your bet at the home stretch. Makes it a little more exciting and the house still rakes it in.
” ... in Europe ... there’s a large amount of crooked money being bet solely to prop up Hillary odds and a large amount of “stupid” money being bet on Hillary”
I can believe there is a lot of “stupid” money being bet on Hillary but why would “crooked” money have an incentive to bet on her if she is going to be the losing candidate?
“In a horse race the betting is closed before the horses go. In politics you get to change your bet at the home stretch.”
Good point.
“I can believe there is a lot of “stupid” money being bet on Hillary but why would “crooked” money have an incentive to bet on her if she is going to be the losing candidate?”
because i don’t think it’s taking that much money to pervert the odds at predictit.com AND it gets idiots like John Stossel to pontificate that the overwhelming betting odds on Hillary means she’s going to win.
a couple of weeks ago an academic analyzed the betting patterns on Trump/Clinton vs. BREXIT, and they found that 70% of the money was bet on Clinton/noBREXIT, while 70% of the number of numbers bettors bet on Trump/yesBREXIT.
“because i don’t think it’s taking that much money to pervert the odds at predictit.com AND it gets idiots like John Stossel to pontificate that the overwhelming betting odds on Hillary means she’s going to win.”
I suppose if enough voters switched their vote based on the publicized betting favorite (because they wanted to side with the perceived likely winner), then there would be scope for strategic betting to “pervert” the odds. I don;t know if the typical voter pays attention to, or even has knowledge of, these election betting markets as opposed to, say, the more publicized polls like RCP, Rasmussen, etc.
“a couple of weeks ago an academic analyzed the betting patterns on Trump/Clinton vs. BREXIT, and they found that 70% of the money was bet on Clinton/noBREXIT, while 70% of the number of numbers bettors bet on Trump/yesBREXIT.”
I read that somewhere, as well.
"He added that most bets were still on a Leave, and that such an outcome in the June 23 referendum would hurt William Hill's bottom line: "Leave has attracted by far the greater number of bets in total and is the result we fear financially. Despite having taken bets of £100,000 ($146,170); £60,000 and £40,000 for 'Remain' we still stand to pay out much more should Leave win." (William Hill's "Leave Odds" on that day were 13/5
http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-betting-odds-make-huge-shift-towards-a-remain-2016-6
Read this article on how the “Remain” big money interests, skewed the betting by injecting huge bets on “Remain”. Meanwhile the great majority of regular/small bets were on “Leave”. The elites shot themselves to influence the vote.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-22/
And how did that work out for the elites?
Then William Hill was itself taking a position on the outcome by offering 13/5 odds three days from the vote. On the previous Monday, the odds at most bookmakers were roughly 7/4 and most everything I read at the time was that the odds were narrowing somewhat as the vote approached. William Hill was apparently not operating a conventional bookmaking operation but instead was using house money to make its own bets. That’s not a business model I would recommend to prospective entrants in the bookmaking industry.
I don’t think you know that.
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