Associate Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections
Posted on 11/01/2016 3:30:07 PM PDT by UKrepublican
We’re at the point of the campaign cycle in Iowa where campaigns cease signing up new people for absentee ballots and go solely into ballot chase and GOTV mode. The increases in requested ballots in the daily totals from here on out will be mostly from people who voted in-person that day. For mail absentee ballots, while they can be requested as late as Friday, there’s just not enough time to reliably get them sent out and returned.
Let’s take another in-depth look at the early vote numbers, as we’re to the point where many of the numbers and vote advantages are set.
The places where we could still see big jumps are Johnson, Story, Scott and Linn counties, all of which have many satellite voting locations in the last week. Democrats believe they’ll see more early voting at those places in the last week than what happened in 2012, including in Johnson County where satellite locations were reduced from 2012 levels.
Here’s how the statewide numbers look from Monday’s report, compared to this point in the election in 2012:
Democrats hold over a 40,000 early vote advantage, and are nearing their 2012 numbers.
Despite the worrying early numbers in September, Iowa Democrats were confident their planning and strategy was on track. It seems that was the case, as Democrats have steadily climbed to 90% of their early vote total from this point in 2012. It likely won’t get up to the 2012 levels, but again, Barack Obama won by 6% then. The real question will be whether independents break heavily for Trump in Iowa – if that’s the case, Democrats would need to get ever closer to their 2012 amount. We’ll see in a week.
Republicans have hovered just above or below their 2012 performance in the early vote. All in all, it likely means Iowa will be extremely close on election night.
Democrats’ return rate is 80%, one tick above the 79% return rate they had at this point in 2012. That’s good considering their all-out absentee efforts started later. Republicans have a 78% return rate, three points below their 81% return rate at this point in 2012.
Iowa Democrats say they’ve knocked on the doors of nearly 390,000 Iowans in October, which has driven them to their slow but steady improvement in the early vote. And their increasing focus on in-person early voting helped keep their advantage over Republicans, plus it helped cut down on return rate and ballot chase problems.
Associate Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections
Hey UKrepublican:
Are you getting that Brexit feeling again?
Hey! Yes, they tried the same tactics against us, just as bad.
Poll manipulation being one of them.
Hoping and praying for a Trump victory.
I cant focus on anything but this at the moment. Its so important.
Huh? In 2012 they had an 85,000 absentee advantage, not 40,000. WTF is he talking about?
The world is much better off, as I’m sure you know, when Uncle Sam links arms with John Bull.
Trump will easily win IA.
He assumes Ds are going to be voting for Hillary.
At least 25% of Ds are going to vote Trump.
Its over.
Where do you see the good news for Trump?
Look at the graph I posted...
I think Trump will get at least 20% of those Dem ballots that have been turned in.
If you look at the charts, GOP turnout is well ahead of Ds.
Same phenomenon that propelled Joni Ernst to the Senate in 2014.
Thanks. The article seemed pro-Democrat.
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/results/index.html#11
Too much misinformation out there. By 10/30/12, Dems had requested 285,000 ballots and Reps requested 202,000.
As of 11/1/16 (equivalent date to 2012), dlDems have requested 252,000 ballots and Reps have requested 202,000.
Dems are down 33,000 from 2012. Reps are even with 2012.
This is for absentee REQUESTS. Most requests are submitted.
Also of note unaffiliated down this year in Iowa. Iowa unaffiliateds in 2012 leaned left.
Yes it’s pretty obvious
Yup. Not much enthusiasm for Hillary.
Its not gonna be a tight race in IA.
Doubtful. Trump by 3-4.
Same GOP numbers as in 2012.
But D and liberal Independent numbers are way down compared to 2012.
Advantage Trump.
Ping
My husband and I are Okies transplanted to Iowa this past summer. We’ll do our bit. :-)
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