Posted on 10/30/2016 5:45:56 PM PDT by mrs9x
Many have asked about the status of Virginia and the early voting to date. At the outset, I am going to provide some information on the relative lack of early voting in the state, and the difficulty in determining how the early voting to date compares to 2012.
First, early voting makes up a very small percentage of the total vote in Virginia. Under Virginia law, early or absentee voting is only permissible for certain circumstances (such as out of the state for business, or a student, etc.). To put numbers on this, in 2012, over 3.8 million votes were cast for president in Virginia. Of that number, only 447,000 votes were cast absentee or early.
To date in 2016, approximately 285,000 early and/or absentee votes have been cast. This is 63.8% of the total early vote in 2012. While there are some reports that indicate that early voting is up in Northern Virginia and down in some traditionally African-American heavy urban areas, there is no data from the Virginia Department of Elections on this point. The Virginia Department of Elections only has the total amount of early/absentee votes cast. There is a large data file with every vote that has been cast, but I have not located a comparable file for 2012 to compare the totals. Thus, it is difficult to say where the early vote stands right now in Virginia.
One final note about Virginia. There has been a lot of talk about Virginia turning into a permanently blue state. Charlie Cook did an analysis in 2015 regarding the African-American vote. He found that the entire difference in vote total between Obama and Romney in Virginia was due exclusively to historically high turnout among African-Americans. According to Cook, in 2012, African-Americans constituted 20% of the electorate in Virginia. Obama won Virginia by 3.8% in 2012. He estimates that if AA turnout went down to 18%, Obama would have won by only 1.6%, cutting the margin of victory by more than half. Also, in 2012, the participation rate by whites was at its lowest level. If African Americans turn out in lower numbers, and Trump can get more whites to turn out, he could win Virginia.
I’m in VA and voted absentee first time ever (Trump, of course). I applied for a religious exemption - no questions asked. Figure I’ll be worshiping a god to be named later that day.
thanks for the update
VA: Portsmiuth, largest black district in the state, down 33% from 2012
Fok5ks, they aren"t even going to win VA.
“Under Virginia law, early or absentee voting is only permissible for certain circumstances (such as out of the state for business, or a student, etc.).”
As it should be everywhere! Along with a photo ID!
To view a county by county assessment of Blue/Red click to view: http://politicalmaps.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/virgnia-1980-to-2008-political-map-roanoke.png
superimpose that over a map and it looks like the urban/suburban areas are heavily blue. Next check the demographics, and you will note that those blue areas in both population density and demographics basically own the state.
People in the red areas are completely disenfranchised on the federal level, but are holding their own at the state level.
If anything will force a personal move out of state it will be disenfranchisement. But... that’s why it’s good to have many other states to choose from.
Terry McAuliffe will be getting out the vote in cemeteries statewide. He too is under FBI investigation and will need a pardon from Hillary.
Based on schedules post yesterday, there were no scheduled events in VA or PA through 11/5 (with the exception of a Katy Perry get out the vote concert in Philly)
Are the dems that confident that they will win these states.....or have they written them off? Given the recent FBI news, maybe it has already been answered for them.
AA vote in NC is down 20% and down about 17% in FL at the moment vs 2012. Could have another VA gov race scenario (was down 10+ and only lost by 1).
I ve thought that people aren’t going to turn out for her. The lack of people for her rallys indicates that.
They are spending a lot of time in MI (just finished several), WI, NH, NV, IA, NC. I’m guessing they figure if VA goes red it likely won’t matter anyway. Surprised about PA though.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
