The Bradly Effect refers to the case where a black LA major who ran for California Governor against a white man in 1982 was well ahead in the polls but lost the election ... the polls were flawed because people did not want to sound racist when asked how they would vote ... the author believes this is also true in the case of the MSM maligned Trump.
I’m out on that limb too, with the American people.
Michael Moore — yes THAT Michael Moore— says Trump will win.
If he says we’ll win, we will win.
These polls are Hillary’s last desperate hail Mary to reduce voter participation. A fake out for the folks who never vote and are dumb enough to believe the MSM.
Fortunately, Trump’s entire message is DON’T TRUST THE MEDIA AND POLITICIANS.
So those listening to Trump will turn out.
Her lazy, low-T voters though... might stay home. Especially if it rains.
There very likely is a Bradley Effect. The Liberal Media’s polls are pure propaganda and the latest ABC poll was just laughable (the Wicked Witch +12). When you take the non-MSM polls and add in the Bradley Effect, Trump is likely ahead by 3-7%.
They said the Bradley effect was happening with the Obama polls too, but it didn’t happen. And if an effect involving a black candidate was ever going to happen, that would’ve been when.
I’m more inclined to believe Trump can be saved by the Brexit effect than by the Bradley effect. We need those unlikely voters who usually don’t show up to come out.
You realize how much the world would be flipped upside down if this happens? The MSM will implode.
What’s working toward Trump’s victory, and better than for Romney at the same time in 2012?
1. Voter enthusiasm probably 20% net positive for Trump.
2. People sick and tired of Hillary and Bill Clinton. People cannot stand to look at her or listen to her.
3. The desire for change, and the fear that this is the last chance to save the country.
4. The desire for a strong leader in a dangerous world.
5. Depressed turnout from Obama’s constituency - blacks, Hispanics, millenials.
6. Trump overwhelming support among men.
7. Trump favorability among union workers.
8. Energy workers who see Trump as their only chance to save their jobs.
9. Trump support among white women.
10. Trump favorability among independents.
11. Increased Republican registration in Iowa, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, elsewhere.
12. Early voting enthusiasm in Republican counties.
13. Trump is not running against Obama.
14. Outrageous MSM polls that are meant to depress turnout, and just energize Trump supporters.
15. The Bradley effect.
What’s working against Trump?
1. MSM spin.
2. Clinton team corruption.
3. Salacious headlines. These are already out there, and will have no additional effect.
4. Our GOPe leaders, proclaiming a loss.
5. Trump misstatements.
If he can stay on message for the next 2 weeks, I like our odds to win.
If they keep telling everyone that Trump has no chance to win then he may just win by +10.
The correct effect in this case is the Shy Tory effect.
TURNOUT,TURNOUT,TURNOUT.
Divert what, exactly, from the presidential campaign? The last time I looked at her schedule, she had no rallies scheduled, and only a couple of fundraisers for ultra-rich donors (whom I suspect were funneling even more money to the Clinton "foundation").
It would be difficult for Clinton to take time away from her campaign when she hasn't been spending time on her campaign in the first place.
There are also the folks who don’t want to waste their time by responding to the polls. I would imagine that a lot of the hang ups or unanswered calls are folks like me who know what we need and will not waste my time with the polls - especially after seeing how freakin’ biased they are.
This was also discussed in the Podesta emails.
The Hillary folks noticed that Trump was performing better than his poll numbers in several early primaries.
They concluded that Trump supporters were more likely to be suspicious of pollsters (and therefore not respond) or weaker Trump supporters would try to tell the pollsters what they thought was “respectable”.
What I still can’t figure out is how you can accurately poll in this age of cell phones with caller ID. There has to be a minority of people who would even agree to take such a call, much less respond to the questions, and who knows how their voting patterns would compare to live respondents.
This stuff just seems like voodoo to me.
my prediction:
general election math: bring out your base (30%), either dispirit your opponents base (30%) or take some, and fight for more then half of the middle (40%).
1. Trump will bring out his base except for the ‘never trump’ people, if they exist and were on the right to begin with. Hillary’s personality attacks have been mostly to shake his support among women. Women on the right see this for what it is and don’t care. he’s also fired up a section of the base that rarely comes out... the silent majority. We’ve also seen an increase in GOP registrations and loads leaving the dems.
(may increase base; base energized; 30%+)
2. Trump’s also made inroads into the traditional democrat base; the unions, blacks, and hispanics. The dem base is also not as fired up as they could be and may stay home.
(10-20% stay home; 10% of the base vote for him; 3% of voters)
3. For the independents, he’s not an insider and is fighting the establishment. this is the key to appealing to independents. This is also a year for change and anti-establishment/anti-status quo. And his time with the WWE gained many fans and relates him to the average guy more than hillary ever could.
(60-65% of independents; 24-26% of voters)
Then we look at hillary... someone that has not campaigned much AT ALL over the last YEAR.
1. 40% of the base wanted Bernie.. which found out hillary rigged the game. that won’t sit well and they’ll stay home. How much of the base? unsure. but it’d at least match the NeverTrump types. She’s also not excited the base, so there won’t be a larger then normal dem turn out.
(10-20% will stay home; lost 10% to Trump; 21-24% of voters)
2. Hillary has made ZERO inroads into Trumps base. she is despised by the right. She’s got nothing here.
(0% of the right; 0% of voters)
3. As for independents, hillary IS the establishment. she is cronyism. she is rampant run-away unaccountable govt. i can’t imagine very many of the independents would find her refreshing.
(35-40% of the middle; 14-16% of voters)
popular vote final
—
Trump: base(30+) + opp(3) + ind(24-26) == 57-59%
Hillary: base(21-24%) + opp(0) + ind(14-16) == 35-40%
of course, playing with the electoral college is a different story. that’s where the gerrymandering of districts and ballot boxes comes in. the dems have a HUGE advantage there. on top of that, electronic voting is not verifiable or trackable; expect it to be rigged
apply my numbers to the registered voter totals on a per state basis and you’ll get an estimate how the electoral college would play out under my analysis
December 8th, RCP Average Trump +5