[cicero2k]

I hope so.

These tracking polls may be employing quantitative techniques the traditional polls don’t.

Sort of like buying stocks above their 10 month moving average, the kind of stuff I have studied for years; applied to polling.

Then again, I was hopeful in 2012; but these quant polls nailed the outcome then.

[Sooth2222]

"These tracking polls may be employing quantitative techniques the traditional polls don’t."

They are more expensive, for one thing. IBD polls 2/3 cell phone users. USC/ LA Times has a fixed sample that they poll, but even gives them an electronic device if necessary. Both polling methods are probably more expensive than paying 50 co-eds $200 to each make 20 phone calls.

(Gallup's 1936 election poll that put them on the map used a sample size of 50,000. The only poll that even comes close to that today is Rasmussen.)

For another, the "cheap" polls probably "normalize" results according 2012 voter turnout demographics. Which will NOT be the same in 2016.