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Florida Absentee Ballot update, 10/14/2016
10/14/2016 | self

Posted on 10/14/2016 5:41:07 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

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At this time, I'm predicting 78% of REP absentee ballots are returned and accepted and 70% of DEM absentee ballots are returned and accepted. Based on those assumptions, I'm predicting REP lead in returned and accepted absentee ballots by 128,338. Prediction will be updated daily.

Also, according to an article I read about OHIO: “By race, voter modeling by Catalist for the AP found the share of Ohio ballot requests by white voters was up, to 91 percent from 89 percent. The black share declined from 9 percent to 7 percent.”

In Florida African-Americans were 13% of the statewide vote in 2008 and 2012. In 2004, they were 11%. If the African-American vote total goes back to "historical norms" without Obama on the ballot, that would reduce Clinton's total in Florida by 160,000 votes. Obama won the state by 74,000 votes in 2012.

1 posted on 10/14/2016 5:41:07 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

In the end; despite all the fireworks; it comes down to turnout.

Even if you’re not in love with Trump - I’m not - he is the one standing in the way of 4 to 8 years of Hillary Clinton.

That cannot happen.

Make sure you and all like-minded people you know show up and vote! Take a friend!


2 posted on 10/14/2016 5:51:00 AM PDT by Reagan80 ("In this current crisis, government is not the solution to our problems, government IS the problem")
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Apologies if you’ve answered this previously, but what do you base your prediction on? Is it the percentage of returned ballots in 2012.


3 posted on 10/14/2016 5:52:20 AM PDT by Heart of Georgia (#neverhellary ... but then, I'm just an uneducated hayseed)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Thank you.

Wow, these statistics are important.

Lies, collusion and corruption may be totally ignored and not win the day.


4 posted on 10/14/2016 5:56:53 AM PDT by YepYep (Build the America you want at your house and keep looking up.)
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To: Heart of Georgia

Ravi posted some data from 2012 on returned/unreturned ballots from 2012. I’m using that data. However, I haven’t been able to independently obtain percentages on 2012 data.

For now, using 78% return for REP and 70% for DEM.


5 posted on 10/14/2016 6:05:03 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

They publish the results of absentee votes before election day? That’s odd.


6 posted on 10/14/2016 6:12:44 AM PDT by Moltke (Reasoning with a liberal is like watering a rock in the hope to grow a building)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Okay, thanks. I’ve kept a watch on LS’s posts. I’ll watch for yours and Ravi’s frome now on.


7 posted on 10/14/2016 6:15:41 AM PDT by Heart of Georgia (#neverhellary ... but then, I'm just an uneducated hayseed)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

If 10% in and 5985 lead, then average points toward 59,850 final spread.lower than the 79,000.


8 posted on 10/14/2016 6:15:53 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Moltke

Not results. Just whos voting, whether GOP or DEM or unaffiliated.


9 posted on 10/14/2016 6:24:33 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Raycpa

Absentees this year imo do not bear relation to 2012. Absentee law changed in FL in 2014 making it much easier to obtain a ballot. You should look it up. I think absentees this year may represent what the total electorate will look like. Just a hunch. We are at almost 3 million absentee requests in florida which will be about 33% of final turnout. That has never happened before. We are pulling early and election day voters into voting absentee is what I think.


10 posted on 10/14/2016 6:30:31 AM PDT by Ravi
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What’s troubling is I saw a Republican Mayor of some Florida city + The Chamber of Course come out & support Hillary!!!! WTF!!!!????


11 posted on 10/14/2016 6:43:40 AM PDT by KavMan
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To: Raycpa

“If 10% in and 5985 lead, then average points toward 59,850 final spread.lower than the 79,000.”

I don’t think the return rate is linear ... it kind of goes parabolic the closer you get to the deadline. That’s just human nature :-).

It’s kind of like a project with a deadline ... there is somewhat linear growth in the % accomplished direction ... as the deadline grows closer, more and more work is done as panic mode sets in :-).

Bottom line, I wouldn’t look at what to expect by the 10% returned so far.


12 posted on 10/14/2016 6:46:33 AM PDT by edh (I need a better tagline)
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To: edh

What is the expected percentage of people who will vote early in Florida versus on election day? Are most people going to vote early?


13 posted on 10/14/2016 6:56:24 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: Moltke

Not how people voted. Only that people have requested and returned an absentee ballot.

What data is released varies by state.


14 posted on 10/14/2016 7:09:54 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: edh

We saw this with requests


15 posted on 10/14/2016 7:11:40 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Raycpa

The numbers you cite only apply if 100% of ballots are returned. Not all absentee ballots are returned. Many of the ballots were automatically sent - a new Florida procedure.

I’m estimating 78% of REP ballots are returned and 70% of DEM ballots are returned. Numbers subject to change as we see the return numbers.


16 posted on 10/14/2016 7:12:54 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: Ravi

I think you are definitely right on this point.

On the positive side, if REPs are ahead under this scenario, that bodes well for the final results.


17 posted on 10/14/2016 7:14:43 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Nice


18 posted on 10/14/2016 7:28:15 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: SpeedyInTexas

We will know if my theory is correct in a few weeks. I wish someone was able to figure out the white and african american percentages like we have for Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. That would be helpful.


19 posted on 10/14/2016 7:43:20 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Iffn’ you have a ping list, please put me on it!


20 posted on 10/14/2016 7:50:42 AM PDT by bitt (“The most insidious power that the media has, is the power to ignore.” - Chris Plante, WMAL)
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