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To: expat_panama
Maybe foreign investors should demand higher rates for U.S. government debt, but I believe several things are going to keep rates down for a long time:

1. Nobody is going to borrow money in the U.S. at higher rates. Business activity will literally come to a standstill.

2. Higher rates will depress the value of heavily-leveraged assets like homes.

3. With 93 million working-age people in the U.S. out of the work force and Baby Boomers retiring en masse, we're actually looking at a deflationary environment here in the U.S.

4. There is no need for foreign investors to demand a premium for U.S. government debt because we'll be seen as a safe currency for the foreseeable future.

8 posted on 10/14/2016 4:05:19 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Go ahead, bite the Big Apple ... don't mind the maggots.")
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To: Alberta's Child

My predication is that all the discussion about interest rates will be irrelevant because...

At some point the government will just issue a new currency—call them Patriots—at 10 cents on the dollar and everything will be worth 90% less including the deficit.

That is how it is normally done in third world countries, and we are well on our way to becoming a third world country.


10 posted on 10/14/2016 4:15:34 AM PDT by cgbg
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To: Alberta's Child
1. Nobody is going to borrow money in the U.S. at higher rates. Business activity will literally come to a standstill.

Low rates have zero benefit for ordinary business. Try going to your local bank and getting business loan. What you are really saying is that crony capitalists will demand their politicians keep rates low benefitting them and only them.

2. Higher rates will depress the value of heavily-leveraged assets like homes.

Bubble sectors like real estate will demand their politicians keep rates low for their benefit, continuing malinvestment and long term economic weakness.

3. With 93 million working-age people in the U.S. out of the work force and Baby Boomers retiring en masse, we're actually looking at a deflationary environment here in the U.S.

Leftist politicians (pretty much most politicians these days) will sign up to low rates to continue to fund bread and circuses.

And finally we come to your only legitimate reason that rates might stay low:

4. There is no need for foreign investors to demand a premium for U.S. government debt because...

Yeah, but you left out the CIA operations to support the same, the treasury and Fed collusion with other central banks to keep our rates low, and especially the expectation that the Fed will resume QE to continue their long term destruction of the economy (see malinvestment above) for the benefit of their political masters.

21 posted on 10/14/2016 5:23:30 AM PDT by palmer (turn into nonpaper w no identifying heading and send nonsecure)
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