Rasmussen has swung 11 pp in Hillary’s direction in the last three weeks, from Trump up 6 to Hillary up 5.
And people ought to take that swing seriously.
It is easy to get a sense of false confidence on a site like this.
Trump was, aside from the more biased public polls, ahead. He did a poor job in the first debate (though a great job in the second one) and this tape stuff does hurt him beyond his base.