"I hate everyday Americans!"
Posted on 10/11/2016 7:16:02 AM PDT by GilGil
And people ought to take that swing seriously.
It is easy to get a sense of false confidence on a site like this.
Trump was, aside from the more biased public polls, ahead. He did a poor job in the first debate (though a great job in the second one) and this tape stuff does hurt him beyond his base.
The thing that continues to amaze me is that this guy, Garrin, and others like him think they can pull this stuff with impunity. No concern whatsoever that some one who lives in his community will recognize him? Does he live in a bunker?
Facts to consider. We are at war. The enemy is inside the gate. People get hurt in war. Especially people who deserve it. The media is the enemy.
This strategy by the MSM could actually backfire if Clinton’s base gets lazy and complacent.
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I suspect this will happen.
Here’s how easy it is:
Take Sundances document and make an Excel spreadsheet that matches. Fill in the numbers and tweak/adjust til it looks “credible” to your customer, who is paying you a quarter-million dollars a month to do “polling” for them. Don’t make it so outrageous that someone with two semesters of statistics can tear it apart and make sure the cross-tabs work out right.
Then publish it. Who is every going to know or even challenge your results? Whoa, here comes another $220K check! Rinse, repeat.
Call it propaganda or simply creative writing. It’s only “news” because they say it is.
When you brag about sexually assaulting women and getting away with it because you are famous, it’s not likely to add to your support. There are plenty of people who will say OK, it was supposed to be a private conversation, and probably what he was saying is true, which is as much a reflection on the type of women who flock to him, but still some people are not going to like that sort of talk. It’s pretty raw stuff.
So a subset of people are repelled by it, some people are not bothered, but how many people are going to swing their vote TO him because of this? It stands to reason that his poll numbers would drop. Maybe this one poll in the heat of the moment overstates it, but his poll numbers will drop.
Good points.
I have worked with some people on election polls and trends. And have seen some of the spreadsheets. They enter data on population of voters, i.e. black, Hispanic, women, and then also have factors entered into for voter turnout.
My takeaway from seeing what they do, is that just a few percentage point difference in any given factor, can give you results showing Hillary with a big lead.
The NBC/WSL poll is probably correct, since those liberal polls are over-sampling democrats, which they would have to do in order to account for the dead and illegal voters who don’t appear in voter registrations. Thus, 11% more for Hillary does take the dead and illegal voters into consideration. Republicans will always have a disadvantage with the dead and illegal voters.
"I hate everyday Americans!"
And yet there are people here hand-wringing over a poll that over samples democrats +7. With the background of the polsters, I think some of the “independents” are not so independent and the number is closer to +11.
Googling the headline together with freerepublic.com usually shows if the article’s already been posted.
Or, until ALL FReepers confirm having read it, whichever comes first!
8^)
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