North Korea Activity at Nuclear Site Raises Speculation Over New Test

Satellite images show vehicles and people around the tunnel entrances of nuclear test site

New satellite photos show activity at all three of the tunnel complexes at North Korea’s nuclear test site amid speculation that Pyongyang will stage another nuclear test around major national anniversaries in the coming days.

The photos, taken on Oct. 1, show vehicles and people around the tunnel entrances. While activity occasionally takes place at individual portals it is unusual to have activity at all three at once, experts say.

The activity could be for several reasons, including the collection of data from North Korea’s Sept. 9 nuclear test at the site, or preparation for a new test, said Jack Liu, an analyst for the North Korea-focused website 38 North, which first published the photos.

South Korea’s government says North Korea appears ready for another nuclear test whenever the order is given from its leader, Kim Jong Un. Speculation among analysts has centered on two days: the 10th anniversary of North Korea’s first nuclear test on Sunday and the 71st anniversary of the founding of its ruling Workers’ Party on Monday.

They’re learning how to minaturize their warheads & make them more efficient in terms of fissile material, I would think. It’s assumed that their first device was probably large & clunky. Now they either have, or are close, to getting something to fit under a missile nose cone.

That's what I'm wondering too - just how much weapons grade fissile material do they have? It would seem they are using a large percentage of it in testing.

Granted, they have to test. Computer models, theories, and calculations only get you so far. At some point you've got to try the actual device to ensure all the skull sweat was right. They've done that, with the first 4 tests spaced several years apart. The fifth and latest test was only a few months after the fourth.

The cycle time between the earlier tests supports the notion of test, analyze data, design, build, prepare, test again... A cycle a couple of years long suggests big fundamental changes/design work. A cycle a few months long suggests mere refinement of a design they are fairly well satisfied with.

If they think they have the warhead / physics package figured out and ready...look for them to focus on the delivery vehicle. If they've got a design of a warhead they like, look for them to build one or two without the actual fissile core in them (dummy weight instead) - then instrument the heck out of them and launch them on test flights. They'll need to make sure the warheads actually work after a missile flight - which is a fairly stressful event, particularly longer range shots.

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