Not only that, plus every pollster is oversampling women
Posted on 10/03/2016 9:09:25 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
This is not to say Hillary Clinton will lose the states listed below; that remains to be seen. Nevertheless, the following numbers are significant as an indication of the lack of enthusiasm for Clinton’s campaign. She has spent $100 million dollars and can’t get people charged up to vote for her.
This chart is a comparison of where she is in current polls and what Barack Obama won by in each of these 23 states in 2012. She is under-performing in all states but Colorado Maryland and California.
Hillary Clinton’s current poll average: Obama margin and Clinton’s short fall Washington State +11.7 14 under 2.7
California +22.2 19 over + 3.2 ****
New York +17.2 27 under 9.8
Vermont +31.3 36 under 4.7
Virginia +5.4 3 under 2.4
Rhode Island +12.9 27 under 14.1
Massachusetts+ 20.3 23 under 2.7
Washington D C. +28.5 82 under 53.5
Illinois +14 16 under 2
Maryland + 27 23.5 under +3.5 ****
Michigan +4.3 9 under 4.7
Minnesota +6.8 8 under 1.2
Pennsylvania +4.0 5 under 1
Connecticut +9.2 18 under 8.8
New Jersey +9.6 17 under 7.4
Delaware +12.7 19 under 12.7
North Carolina +.4 3 under 2.6
Colorado +2.0 4 over +2 *****
New Mexico +6.7 10 under 3.3
Nevada -.2 6 under 5.8
Hawaii +18.8 43 under 24.2
New Hampshire +5.4 6 under .6
Iowa -1.9 6 under 7.9
There are six states where Clinton is under performing by 7 points or more. Because they are atypical, The District of Columbia and Hawaii have been excluded although both showed a remarkable short fall in Clinton’s current poll performance compared to the margin of victory enjoyed by Obama in 2012.
Clinton’s current under-performance average in those six states is 10.1%.
This is not to say that Clinton may not ultimately win these states, but a short fall of this size cannot be explained as anything but an indication of a lack of excitement and enthusiasm about Clinton’s campaign. Overall Clinton is under performing in 20 of the 23 states she is winning.
As compared to the margin Obama won them in 2012 Clinton is over performing in just three states by an average of 2.9 points. Maryland +3.5 and California at + 3.2, she will win easily while the other is battleground state Colorado + 2 compared to Obama’s margin of victory.
The best explanation of these numbers has to be a lack of enthusiasm among Clinton’s supporters and her voters which are not necessarily the same people.
The latest Wapo/ABC survey has the felon + 2 but when you look at the internals showing Trump getting 65% of White men and 44% of White women getting just 10% of Blacks; 30% of Hispanics and 25 of the remaining 5% Asians and "others" ALL down from Romney except White vote; Trump is at 52.58% using 2012 turnout numbers which we know will not be the case as Trump's 11% enthusiasm edge will push the White vote up to 74% and he will get more than 10% of the Black vote.
Too bad we can’t quantify the Monster Vote factor and what I call the Inconvenience Factor. A lot of dems are going to be turned off when they see how long the lines are at the polling places. They may have waited in line for two hours to vote for BO, but they won’t for Hillary.
Trump voters otoh will have packed lunches, lawn chairs and sodas to make a day of it. They’ll crawl over cut glass to cast their votes if they have to. Hillary voters, not so much.
The attendance or lack of at the respective rallys tells the tale. JMHO!
I will go out on a limb and predict Trump will win every state that Obama won by ten percent or less...
That is the true “enthusiasm gap” for Hillary among Sanders supporters (who don’t vote or vote third party) and Independents who voted Democrat last time.
“...rallys...”
rallies
Hillary is done.
Any state she isn’t not leading in by at least +10, she will certainly lose.
The states she will win are states she’ll win anyway but with far fewer votes than Obama got in 2012.
She is losing every swing state. That’s the bottom line with the 2016 election.
Apart from CA, IL, VT, NY, NJ, DC that are locks for her, where is she ahead?
And even there she’s not leading by Obama’s blowout margins from four years ago.
Trump wins, barring some future game-changing development.
You know things are bad when a corpse has a chance to beat Trump.
I would not consider NY a lock for Hillary because that state is Trump’s home state.
They are keeping the polls very close so we won’t question a “stolen” election. If the polls were accurately showing Trump up by double digits, then a stolen election would be obvious and trigger outrage. They HAVE to keep them tracking close.
Optimism is nice, but there are millions of Hillary voters who are never polled. Still they vote in every election, and I expect them to vote in larger numbers than ever before. We have to do everything imaginable to get the conservative vote to the polls this year, to support poll watching and True-the-vote efforts, and otherwise to make sure we have a large enough margin to overcome urban fraud.
If each of us on FR has 100 friends and relatives who are reliable Trump supporters, we have a responsibility to call them on Election Day, make sure they voted, and if necessary drive them to the polls. We can win if we go all out, including putting in time beyond just casting a ballot. Otherwise, these Hillary voters (who outnumber us by a huge margin) will tip the election toward the ice-cold tyrant:
Trump WILL win. Not even the dead will be able to help this time.
If the worse does happen, there will be questions abound mark my words.
Nothing is inevitable. What we do over the next four weeks matters. If we get overconfident, the thugs on the left will do their best to steal the election, and I really do not want to go through the ugliness that would follow that outcome.
You are correct
Don’t hesitate to help me out if you ever see where I need a correction.
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