To Secure His Brutal Grip on Power, North Korean Leader Adopts Grandfather’s Folksy Image

Kim Jong Un fashions his propaganda, policies and nuclear ambitions after the country’s founder, Kim Il Sung. He even copies his haircut and dress

SEOUL? Kim Jong Un was a virtual unknown when his father died of a heart attack in December 2011 and left him the leader of North Korea.

Intelligence analysts knew little more than he was a man in his 20s who had attended school in Switzerland and loved basketball. Some guessed Mr. Kim, third in a line of Kim-family dictators, would be a weak, short-lived ruler. Governments abroad feared a violent collapse, but also hoped that the end of the family’s rule would reduce North Korea’s nuclear threat.

Instead of chaos, however, there appeared to be a plan, according to experts on the tightly closed country.

Mr. Kim’s unexpected resilience has forced Washington to recalculate the scale of the threat North Korea poses to the world, as well as U.S. responses.

There is nothing unexpected about it. China initially appeared to tighten its economic pipeline to N. Korea, but their inter-border trade is now returning back to the previous level. Chinese are bent on cowing S. Korea into their orbit, and push U.S. out of S. Korea, the objective which both China and N. Korea share. It is now apparent that Chinese believe that this is more important than the risk nuclear N. Korea poses. N. Korea's nuke is causing a development which China views as threatening their interest. Its program hardens S. Korea's stance, which wants to have its own strategic deterrent such as its own nuke or the deployment of THAAD on its soil. The China's reaction is not to rein on N. Korea but to restore its ties to the country, closing ranks against their common enemies.

If China's objective is maintaining the current status quo and slowly shaping it in its favor, it is questionable that their recent move will serve their interest. They are pursuing essentially a game of chicken: rattle the situation and make U.S. blink, scaring it enough to cut and run, while still holding leash on its allies in the region. However, things can develop in the direction they do not want: either those U.S. allies cut the leash on their own or U.S. beefing up its military presence in the region.

China currently has two problems to deal with: N. Korea and S. China Sea. They have to keep one under control to address the other. If their calculation does not pan out, they face two crises. I doubt that they can handle both at the same time. N. Korea will keep on pushing envelope as long as they can get away with it. As far as I can see, China has no red-line drawn against N. Korea. Whatever N. Korea does, it eventually gets along with it. So what does Kim Jong-un fear? He will push his agenda, not matter what China thinks, and force China to accept it. China would be taken for a ride, until both are starting at the abyss.

Decision makers in a powerful state, especially if it is an adversary, are frequently viewed as operating on a meticulously developed precise plan, advancing their interest without error. On the contrary, they are frequently inept, incompetent, and following inertia. China is no exception.

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