"There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics."
Posted on 09/18/2016 10:18:10 AM PDT by artichokegrower
Hate crimes against American Muslims have soared to their highest levels since the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, according to data compiled by researchers, an increase apparently fueled by terrorist attacks in the United States and abroad and by divisive language on the campaign trail.
(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...
I call manufactured BS.
Up 78%? Does that mean there were 10 and then there were 5 more?
Attacks by Muslims up 210%
Would rather they go back to the ME.
And that's just by other mooselimbs.
OK, I'll be the straight man here.
Where?
They fail to report how much muslim inspired attacks on Americans have gone up.
You hear alla snackbar anywhere around you,,you pull out you firearm right away, it may be too late already.
Until they are getting on airplanes and leaving or denouncing their satanic cult...........
How much are attacks against Americans and Christians up? Lets start there before we worry about attacks against Islamic terrorists.
Since anti-Muslim attacks would mean screaming headlines in the MSM, how come I’ve missed this tidal wave of bigotry?
More advocacy journalism, a story that never would have gotten past a real copy editor.
THE DOTS ON NEW YORK BOMBING
No one was killed...
The Liberal MSM has glommed onto this story and ARE running with it. All the usual democrats who find ‘ terrorism too complex’ are NOT confused about this bombing. They want to get to the ‘ideology’...
That’s telling.
Liberal officials are all aghast...
There are no warnings “NOT to judge all Muslims by the acts of the few...”
The MSM knows it’s NOT a Muslim. The press would NEVER trumpet and PUSH this story if it damaged a member of a Democrat victim group. The bomber is NOT black, liberal, gay, an illegal, a woman or Muslim. If he IS - the story will quickly die - move to a ‘mentally ill’ person etc...
The press feels they can use this to hurt Trump, conservatives and all American Republican citizens. That the high energy tell...
What’s next?
The ‘dream’ outcome for democrats is the killers is either DEAD, Missing (that keeps the story going for months) and that they’ve got ‘right wing’ proof that he backed Trump.
More.
Faster.
Everywhere.
Wonder who they are referring to here? Must make the best of every tragedy.
“...Hate crimes against American Muslims...”
Yeah, I do hate it when Muslim so-called Americans kill Americans...
San Bernadino, Dallas, New Orleans, Orlando, Chattanooga, Boston, New York....
I responded to this yesterday on Facebook when somebody posted the NYT original article. Sorry if it is long. The study is largely bogus.
“NYT Article on Hate Crimes Against Muslims due to Trump fails my smell test.
The article (and the study it is based on) are so bad that it strikes me as pretty much a hate crime against Donald Trump!
Obviously all hate crimes are despicable both as crimes and as indicators of the likelihood of further crimes because of the mind-set of the perpetrators. Moreover, those who advocate hate crimes should bear the consequences of their hate speech.
That said the article and the data it is based on deserve close scrutiny largely because it attempts to blame what is represented as a massive increase in hate crime on a Presidential Candidate. When the stakes are high, it is wise to ask “But is it true?”.
Here is the report on which this article’s headline is based.
https://www.documentcloud.org/…/3110202-SPECIAL-STATUS-REPO…;
The report is based on a bizarrely naive and incomplete statistical analysis. The NYT article compounds the issue by focusing on a specious, misleading and inflammatory statistic.
“While the most current hate crime statistics from the F.B.I. are not expected until November, new data from researchers at California State University, San Bernardino, found that hate crimes against American Muslims were up 78 percent over the course of 2015. Attacks on those perceived as Arab rose even more sharply.”
I am very familiar with “How to Lie with Statistics” so a number of questions immediately jumped into my mind as they should for anyone who does not want to belied to or led around by the nose.
My first question is, 78 per cent of what number? The article does not say.
My second question is what is the hate crime rate per 100000 in the demographic group? The article does not say. I could not find it in the report either!
My third question is how does the hate crime rate against the Muslim Community compare to other minority communities? Is it higher? Is it lower? The article does not say. The report does not say.
My fourth question is why does the report highlight Mr Trump’s statements when much of the increase in 2015 must have occurred prior to Trump making his initial inflammatory statements about Islamic immigration?
Here are the answers to the first three questions based on the data scattered about the report.
Question 1: In 2015 in the 20 States studied there were 196 hate crimes against Muslims. In 2014 there were according to the report 110 hate crimes. That is less than 10 per State per year. Too many but hardly headline material when there were 488 murders in Chicago alone in 2015 and in 2016 that total has already been surpassed before the end of August - a likely 50% increase!! What on earth did Mayor Rahm Emmanuel say?
Question 2: In 2015, the hate crime rate for Muslims was about 11 per 100,000 - assuming about 1.7 million Muslims in the 20 States covered in the report. We have a baseline statistic, something the report should have started with.
Question 3: In 2015, there were 502 hate crimes against Jews. Given the relative sizes of these two populations mentioned in the report, I estimate the hate crime rate against Jews is 15 per 100,000!
If you use the shoddy logic of the study authors you might note that for broad comparison purposes that in Washington DC where there is the highest % Muslim population in the US, the violent crime rate is 1,244 per 100,000. But like the logic in the article and the study these are specious and grossly misleading statistics.
If you use the study authors’ approach to statistics, the relative hate crime rates against Muslims and Jews works out as a hate crime rate for Jews that is 35% higher than that for Muslims! Of course, that again would be specious and misleading and professionally inappropriate, i.e., plain wrong.
Please read the report for yourselves. The report looks incredibly rushed and unpolished to the point of incoherence, as if someone wanted to get it into print to make a deadline. Why only 20 States for some groups, only 11 or 10 States for others? My strong suspicion is that it was designed to attack Mr Trump and to hit the streets before the election. It does not pass my smell test.”
I did analysis last night. I am watching grand daughter’s softball game. It’s sunny and low 80’s in San Diego right now.
I’ll give you a tease. I destroyed this dumb study. Stay tuned in.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.