Posted on 09/08/2016 9:34:34 AM PDT by BigEdLB
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely North Carolina general election voters was conducted between September 5 and September 7, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 100 North Carolina counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
(Excerpt) Read more at suffolk.edu ...
Everyone of these liberal colleges BS in their polling.
Yet Trump leads by 3.
NC should’ve been in the bag for trump by now....this is a tad upsetting!
Right.
Trump up +3 = = Trump => +10
It’s actually slightly more than D+9
Dem39.9
R30.7
I29.3
Of course. My point is that they can’t even skew it to put Hillary in the lead.
This is getting ridiculous. A +9 turnout? Didn’t The One only have like +3 or 4 in 2012?
What was the party affiliation turnout for NC in 2012?
North Carolina is not in play. Trump has it locked up.
I am starting to look at Colorado and Wisconsin as Trump pickups.
Actually...that’s an accurate partisan breakdown for NC, according to the SBoE website.
Did you see the internals?
Big Ed. Not defending Suffolk, but I thought I read somewhere that NC does have about a 10 pt D registration advantage. Now, turnout and registration are 2 different things, but point is I’m not sure that D+9 is that much out of the equation.
Just checked. It was D+6 in 2012 in a state Romney won with a heavily African American population and a black President on the ticket. Trump is probably up 5-6 pts at least.
Self ID is different than registration.
Hang on:
“Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. “
So they have an inherent bias to start with....
North Carolina is in the bag for Trump by now. The poll shows Trump leading, even with its flawed methodology.
Don't let yourself be discouraged by anti-Trump propaganda! It's the only reason the Media and Establishment (but I repeat myself) publish such polls.
Vote Trump!
Correct.
Additionally, the party splits have gone even more in favor of the GOP since 2012.
Establishment pollsters are using outdated party affiliation data for their models. The only reason for this is to skew the results in favor of Hillary.
If Trump is doing this well in such polls, Hillary is indeed in yuuuuge trouble.
But take nothing for granted. Make sure to vote, and make sure to get all of your family and friends to vote as well. The Republic depends on it.
Vote Trump!
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