Gary doesn’t have 9%. He has 1-3% at best. This is the thumb on teh scale to keep the “horse race”going.
I don't know about that. There's a bunch of disaffected Bernie voters who hate Hillary. Some of them are going to vote for Trump but most won't. Gary seems a likely alternative for some of them.
Bingo. Many people are "looking at" Gary Johnson, but he's no Ross Perot, just a parking spot while they ponder whether they're throwing their vote away. He is spending a ton of money on radio spots and billboards here in NV. No polls are to be taken seriously until well after Labor Day.
I think most of Gary’s 9 or 10% will peel off to Trump at crunch time.
I agree that Gary won’t get 9% on Nov 8, but he does perform a useful service in that he gives people who are not yet ready to come out for Trump a place to park their “preference” (it is not a “vote” until they actually cast a ballot) for now, giving them time to come around. I personally think Hillary’s ceiling is about 3% above her total in an accurate 4-way poll. A poll that shows Hillary and Trump at 40-40, with 20 Johnson/Stein/undecided, is fantastic for Trump. Johnson and Stein will be lucky to get 3-4%. In 1980, there were polls showing Reagan and Carter at 39-42% each right up to the end. If that happens this year, the results will be similar.