Although Putin has whined about the treatment of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states, I agree that no one is going to attack anyone there, with the possible exception of the nutjobs in Belarus, ruled for over 20 years by Lukashenko, and they could attack in any direction just because they’re nutjobs.
I interpret this sort of stuff as lone wolf analysis by individuals nostalgic for the Cold War and the old Soviet Union, pushed forward by chit-chat mischievously promoted by Russian officials perhaps just for roughly the same reasons.
Like a mist that suddenly disappears on an autumn morning, these scenarios can sound plausible but I doubt that anything of this sort is actually happening. After Crimea and east Ukraine, most of the rest of this stuff is conjecture and nobody really has the level of insanity required to try any of it out in the real world.
Things will muddle along about as they are now until Trump and Putin can have a chat. Then we might see something new and hopefully better than we’ve been seeing.
But as for NATO trying to provoke Russia into a ground war, that is just plain nuts. How would any member of NATO benefit from such a thing, we would lose and many of our resources would be destroyed in the process. And all for no reason whatsoever.
Like your analysis of Lukashenko of Belarous and “they could attack in any direction”.
Seriously, a late friend of mine, Dr. William Perl (Got 40,000 Jewish children out of Nazi occupied Europe at the beginning of WW2; 3rd Army/Patton Intell Officer and investigator of the Malmedy Massacre), wrote his life story in a book entitled “The Four Front War” (Later reissued as “Operation Annihilate”). He saw specific types of wars all around us (and Israel).
It might have been Prof. Frank Barnett of Un. of Penn. Foreign Policy Institute (something like that) who wrote a book “The Front Is Everywhere”.
That could apply to Lukashenko’s view of his world, wherever that is.
However, for the U.S. as the leader of the “Free World” or what is left of it, “The Front Is Everywhere” including “inside the gates”.
Your observation on Lukashenko has really opened a door on history and reality.