All 3 states were weighted almost identically to the 2012 Exit Polls. So they are assuming the same turnout model. As we have stated extensively on this forum. it is highly doubtful that Hillary will have the same level of enthusiasm as Obama or that Trump voters will have the same level of apathy as Romney voters. Also, these polls do not seem to take into account the so-called unseen and unpolled “Monster Vote” for Trump. But for now, the polls are what they are and I think Trump is in very good shape overall.”
Excellent logic but Dana Perino and Rush Limbaugh say “Oh we were fooled in 2012 and thought polls showing Romney down were wrong so everything is the same this time and the polls are right.” Of course - ha ha ha I call BS In Florida the State Elections people estimate 25% of those voting in the primary never ever voted before. Trump rolled.
The Florida primary back in March was a shocker to the pundits. That was to have been a "Trump firewall" as both Marco Rubio was still running (Jeb Bush had dropped out by then) and surely Trump was not going to beat Rubio in his home state. But he did and it wasn't even close. Trump won every single country except Miami-Dade (that went to Rubio).
For all practical purposes, Marco Rubio was finished that night and he suspended his campaign immediately.
Rubio was done in by the "monster vote" that nobody saw coming.
“All 3 states were weighted almost identically to the 2012 Exit Polls. So they are assuming the same turnout model.”
Good observation and that is the problem with the polls. They are using the 2012 model. This is not 2012 on so many levels.