[grania]

In OH, Trump is going to make inroads into traditional Democratic voters...coal miners, independents who are concerned about manufacturing jobs, the black and citizen immigrant population that lose jobs and opportunities when jobs leave and non-citizen competition for jobs costs them opportunities. I don't see how those polls can be anything but flawed if they don't do some real intensive polling of those areas and others such as law and order/police votes that will go for Trump in very high percentages.

My feeling is that Trump is in very good shape, but he can't do anything (like get stupid on the illegal issue) that cuts down the enthusiasm level of his most avid supporters.

[HamiltonJay]

I find no real support for Hillary anywhere in PA or OH... granted its just anecdotal, but when I talk to groups that should be right up Hillary’s wheelhouse... Retirement aged women who have voted Democrat their entire lives... I haven’t found any that are motivated supporters for her..... none... many just won’t vote for her at all..

Trump is appealing very well to the blue collar dems base... he won’t steal all of it away, but he is going to get a lot of support from it in the rust belt in particular.